First Sigma
JackUnderstanding and optimizing the world. Forecasting, tech, finance, effective altruism, and more.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 14 | Founded | 4 years ago | Last Issue | 2 years ago |
| Active | |||||
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firstsigma.substack.comLatest Issues
Predictions for 2024
Each year I make some predictions about the next year, and score my predictions for last year, with inspiration from Scott Alexander, Vox's Future Perfect, Matt Yglesias, and others.
In this post I'll give my predictions and analysis for t...
What can we learn from scoring different election forecasts?
In my previous post I described how I compared the accuracy of election forecasts between different forecasting models and platforms. In this post, I'll dive into my interpretation of the results of this comparison.
The summary results are...
Comparing election forecast accuracy
Update: results and analysis are posted in my follow-up post here.
It's interesting to compare forecasts between different prediction platforms, but it's rare for them to have questions that are identical enough to compare easily. Election...
What should I do if exposed to Covid?
This is part of a collection of articles on Covid-19
In my last post, I discussed what to do if you get Covid. Here, I'll briefly discuss what to do if you were in close contact with someone with Covid.
First, I'll say that if you're an a...
What to do if you get Covid
This is part of a collection of articles on Covid-19
Several people I know got Covid over the recent weeks. They were mild cases, as the vast majority of cases are. But though the vast majority of cases are mild, the risk of severe illness...
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