Explaining complex AI models as clear as daylight. Focusing on time series and latest AI research.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 63 | Founded | 3 years ago | Last Issue | 13 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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aihorizonforecast.substack.comLatest Issues
Can a Time-Series Foundation Model See a Promotion Coming?
Update, 1 October 2026: I added t0-beta, a new model from The Forecasting Company. It reads the covariate well and ranks 1st among open-weight models!
Most business time series depend on a calendar.
Retailers plan promotions, countries...
How Good Can Linear Models Be for Forecasting? Good, Until a Zero-Shot Model Shows Up
Time series foundation models are in an odd position right now.
The AI conversation is almost entirely about LLMs, and forecasting models are easy to overlook in that noise. Many practitioners still default to a linear model or a boosted...
Nori-30M: A Small Open Model That Beats Tuned CatBoost at Regression
A head-to-head regression benchmark of Nori-30M, TabPFN-3, TabICL-v2, and TabFM against tuned and untuned CatBoost.
In our last benchmark, tabular foundation models outperformed fully tuned CatBoost on classification.
Do Tabular Foundation Models Actually Beat CatBoost? - Part 2
In Part 1, we introduced the 3 tabular foundation models and went through the settings that most affect their results.
In this part, we turn to the question that really matters in practice: how well they perform once we benchmark them pro...
Tabular Foundation Models Are Not Plug-and-Play - Part 1
The pretrained models beating gradient boosting come with hidden settings. A guide to TabPFN-3, TabICL-v2, and TabFM
Tabular foundation models arrived with a simple promise. No training, no tuning, and we get predictions that beat a tuned...
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Data Scientist at Persado • Making AI simple
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