Imperfect Information
Rajiv SethiOn economics, identity, justice, and discourse...
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 300 | Subscribers | Read | rajivsethi.substack.com |
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Latest Issues
Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.
The Second Coming
The price of a contract that pays a dollar if Jesus Christ returns this year is currently trading at about four cents on Polymarket, up from about two cents in early January:
Guessing Games
In my last post I discussed the case of a Polymarket trader who placed a series of well-timed bets on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro and made a profit of over $400,000 (on a $32,000 investment) in just a few days. What was unusual was not the...
The Venezuela Windfall
Major economic, political, and military decisions move asset prices, and those with foreknowledge of such things can make significant trading profits. For example, the placement and easing of tariff protections had a predictable whipsaw eff...
Wordle and the Wisdom of Crowds
I’m hoping that this post will have something useful to say about strategic diversity, meritocratic selection, and asset price bubbles. But before I get there I need to take a detour through Wordle, the popular online game that is played by...
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Authors
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Professor of Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University; External Professor, Santa Fe Institute; 2025-26 CASBS Fellow, Stanford University
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