Imperfect Information
Rajiv SethiOn economics, identity, justice, and discourse...
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 249 | Subscribers | Read | rajivsethi.substack.com |
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Latest Issues
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Forecasting Mechanisms: Another Update
The gulf between models and markets in predicting the outcome of the November election has widened.
The French Connection
Over the past week or so, a sizable gap has opened up between prediction markets and statistical models referencing the outcome of the November election.
Forecasting Mechanisms: An Update
At around 3:30pm on Election Day in 2012, I noticed something unusual on Intrade. Someone had placed large orders to buy Romney contracts at prices from 30¢ on down, effectively putting a floor on the price of this contract and resulting in...
The Fredi9999 Account
On the morning of October 7 there was a sharp increase in the price of the Trump contract on Polymarket that did not seem connected to any new public information, and was not mirrored in other prediction markets:
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Authors
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Professor of Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University; External Professor, Santa Fe Institute
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