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Imperfect Information

Rajiv Sethi

On economics, identity, justice, and discourse...

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Latest Issues

Markets and the Midterms

Interest in prediction markets during this election cycle is at fever pitch.

A conference at Yale last Friday overlapped with the second day of the NextPredict summit in New York; I participated in the latter so had to miss the former. An...

6 days ago
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Some Recollections of Perry Mehrling

I’m still trying to process the shocking news that Perry Mehrling has died at the age of 67, following an accident at his home.

Perry interviewed me for my current job a very long time ago, and was my colleague and department chair for man...

18 days ago
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Volume Inflation Without Wash Trading

In June 2026, Kalshi launched markets in perpetual futures or perps. These are open-ended contracts that allow traders to bet on movements in the prices of other assets, including cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ether. People with no p...

a month ago
16
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Artificial Traders in Real Markets

Like countless other folks I’ve been trying to grapple with the implications of what happened at OpenAI over the past couple of months—agents broke out of solitary confinement, established communication channels with each other, found ways...

2 months ago
15
3

A Book Contract and Other Updates

Back in late June I signed a contract with Princeton University Press for a trade book, Engines of Prophecy: The Power and Perils of Prediction Markets. I think it will be broadly accessible and fun to read but the book will also grapple wi...

3 months ago
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5

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  • Rajiv Sethi

    Professor of Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University; External Professor, Santa Fe Institute; 2025-26 CASBS Fellow, Stanford University

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