Imperfect Information
Rajiv SethiOn economics, identity, justice, and discourse...
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 303 | Founded | 5 years ago | Last Issue | 2 months ago |
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rajivsethi.substack.comLatest Issues
Information Contagion
At around 6:50am ET on March 24, there was an unusually large spike in trading volume in oil and stock futures markets. Fifteen minutes later, Donald Trump announced on social media that productive negotiations with Iranian officials were u...
Trading on Violence
Insider trading on prediction markets is turning into a dog-bites-man type of story.
The latest incident involves betting on the precise date of the US strike on Iran. Six wallets were opened shortly before the strikes, bought large numbe...
Claude (Anthropic) on the Tariff Case
There’s so much information now available at our fingertips, and we face increasingly frequent and challenging decisions regarding the allocation of time and attention. For instance, the Supreme Court ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. T...
The Second Coming
The price of a contract that pays a dollar if Jesus Christ returns this year is currently trading at about four cents on Polymarket, up from about two cents in early January:
Meanwhile, on a separate market, traders are betting on whether...
Guessing Games
In my last post I discussed the case of a Polymarket trader who placed a series of well-timed bets on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro and made a profit of over $400,000 (on a $32,000 investment) in just a few days. What was unusual was not the...
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Professor of Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University; External Professor, Santa Fe Institute; 2025-26 CASBS Fellow, Stanford University
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