Economics, finance and public policy.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 436 | Founded | 7 years ago | Last Issue | 2 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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stephenkirchner.substack.comLatest Issues
The contrarian buy signal on bonds
So much for the debasement trade
The Economist magazine is reliably late to the story of rising bond yields and its latest cover is as good as it gets as a contrarian buy signal.
Macro Digest
Main Themes and Market Sentiment
The bond rout went further. The US 10-year peaked at 5.27% and the quarter was the worst for Treasuries since 2022. The 30-year yielded its most since 2002; the 30-year TIPS yield hit 3.28%, the highest...
An illustrated guide to higher US Treasury yields
You will miss them when they are gone
The continued rise in US Treasury yields has been the main preoccupation of market participants this week. US bond returns for 2026 are squarely on the left hand side of the distribution of annual retu...
Macro Digest
Week to 26 September
Main Themes and Market Sentiment
The Simon-Ehrlich wager over 125 years
The secular trend in real commodity prices
Next week marks the 46th anniversary of the Julian Simon-Paul Ehrlich wager on the trend in real commodity prices. If you are not familiar with the wager, I highly recommend The Bet by Paul Sabin,...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Financial market, think-tank and academic economist based in Sydney, Australia. Views expressed in this newsletter are my own and should not be attributed to current or previous employers.
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