Macroeconomic and public policy investment strategy
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ironsidesmacro.substack.comLatest Issues
May Payroll Preview
The 'Low Churn, Slow Burn' labor market muddles along
The Bottom Line: There are months where we are on the edge of our seats on payroll day, this isn’t one of them.
Ironsides Monday Morning Brief
Summarizing our May 30 Note: Breakeven Disinversion
Read the note Breakeven Disinversion
Breakeven Disinversion
The breakeven inflation curve is sending an unmistakable signal that the energy price spike is very similar to tariffs. Never go full Trichet.
In this week’s note…
Guidance
Forward guidance when the policy rate is not zero is headed for the dust bin of history. The only hedge for the capex boom is cash, not non-tech sectors.
Guidance
Guidance
Our recommendation to reduce risk leans into the idea that the only hedge for the capex boom is cash, not non-tech sectors.
We begin this week’s note with perspective on the Warsh Fed and the similarities to Fed Chairman McChesney Martin’s...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC is an independent provider of macroeconomic and public policy investment strategy. Our brand, 'It's Never Different This Time', underscores our use of historical analogs to better inform the business cycle.
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