JS投資筆記
多年機構投資分析及個人投資經驗，信奉價值投資，環球投資佈局，分享內容及主題包括但不限於股票／債券／期權／地產／宏觀／地緣政治，追求簡單易明及反脆弱的投資機會︱重要提醒：本平台僅為個人的知識及經驗分享，所有內容概不構成任何理財建議。投資之前請獨立思考、不要盲目跟從、審慎評估並自負盈虧。
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 40 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 12 days ago |
| Active | Language |  Korean | |||
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jc12693677.substack.comLatest Issues
JS GARP 框架 B：Tier 2 預期差獵手（Expectations-Gap Hunter）
重要提醒：本文僅為個人的知識及經驗分享，所有內容概不構成任何理財建議及理據。投資之前請獨立思考、不要盲目跟從、審慎評估並自負盈虧。
此框架目標是尋找 1–3 年期被市場錯殺的投資機會，尋找利潤修復、預期差交易，並不是永久持有邏輯（一般應用於有瑕疵、股價大跌、低估值的公司）
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JS 的 GARP 框架 A：Tier 1 複利機器守門員（Compounding Machine Gatekeeper）
重要提醒：本文僅為個人的知識及經驗分享，所有內容概不構成任何理財建議及理據。投資之前請獨立思考、不要盲目跟從、審慎評估並自負盈虧。
1. 框架 A 的硬性條件
框架 A （Tier 1 複利機器守門員）的初步硬性條件如下：
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Adobe (ADBE US) 的投資研究筆記（FY26 Q2 業績）
重要提醒：本文僅為個人的知識及經驗分享，所有內容概不構成任何理財建議及理據。投資之前請獨立思考、不要盲目跟從、審慎評估並自負盈虧。
當前判斷
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底層基本面「暫時無事」、輕資產高 ROIC、極高的營運利潤率、單位數Forward P/E，且 AI 有望融入全網生態圈的企業 （現時仍有10%+的收入增長），存在不對稱回報的投資機會（正面我贏，反面我不用輸）
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市場有可能把Adobe的商業模式換軌期的暫時性失血，錯判為結構性衰退，轉型的不確定性...
近期有留意及研究的標的整理 — 中概股 / 物管 / 白酒
重要提醒：本文僅為個人的知識及經驗分享，所有內容概不構成任何理財建議及理據。投資之前請獨立思考、不要盲目跟從、審慎評估並自負盈虧。
白酒
開始有跌出個價值來的感覺，行業集體降價 + 內地官場禁酒 + 價量齊跌（茅台勉強好點，非茅台大多數都業績一般），在內房危機之前（2021年前）大部份中高端酒是供不應求，投資者及經銷商都當白酒是「奢侈品」去收藏及等待升值，在22年至24年期間酒廠為了保持業績而增大向經銷商壓貨模式，把行業基本面惡化完全曝光延遲至25年/...
有關近期市況的隨心分享 (3/6/2026)
重要提醒：本文僅為個人的知識及經驗分享，所有內容概不構成任何理財建議及理據。投資之前請獨立思考、不要盲目跟從、審慎評估並自負盈虧。
近期想法與主要觀點
- 近期美股上升動力的確來自EPS的上修，基本面及盈利驅動下帶動股市上漲，但市寬嚴重不足，集中在AI相關及半導體股。主流 AI 及半導體相關的衍生品種（包括二三線股、芯片設計與製造、AI大模型、記憶體、電力、光通訊、硬件、基礎設施、太空、核能、量子計算等）升幅非常誇張，估值上有概率已經透支不少未來的...
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多年機構投資分析及個人投資經驗，信奉價值投資，環球投資佈局，分享內容及主題包括但不限於股票／債券／期權／地產／宏觀／地緣政治，追求簡單易明及反脆弱的投資機會︱重要提醒：本平台僅為個人的知識及經驗分享，所有內容概不構成任何理財建議。投資之前請獨立思考、不要盲目跟從、審慎評估並自負盈虧。
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