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bitcoin death-cross study
TL;DR - decline into the death cross is expected and is mostly played out. Historically, post death cross we get a pretty violent bounce which is confluent with bitcoin price action post 25% decline (which we also saw recently).
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A death...
25% bitcoin price declines
We’ve most recently had a > 25% decline in bitcoin price from peak to trough. This inspired me to take a closer look at how prior 25% declines have resulted before.
We’ve had 50 unique 25% (or greater) declines since 2013 on Bitcoin. On av...
update on strategy and saylor
It’s been a minute since I’ve written anything, but want to build on the last few write-ups [1][2] regarding Saylor and MicroStrategy.
Will assume reader has familiarity with MicroStrategy (check out the prior write-ups if not!)
Since Oc...
Underperformance of crypto equities
Kenny G wins again
So what’s with the underperformance of crypto equities?
I’m going to illustrate the general dynamics on how the options market effects the underlying stock price
A big factor is the monthly options expiry (mopex) comin...
Markets and election uncertainty
The US presidential election is in 2 days.
There’s a lot of nervousness in markets leading up to this. We can see this with elevated VIX values, and bearish options positioning.
But historically, how have markets fared post election? Is...
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