Jill Cetina, CFA's Substack on all things macro-finance, banking, regulation, fixed income markets and financial stability
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily |
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Does post WWII history really suggest “higher inflation will pay off US government debt?”
President Trump recently suggested that “higher inflation could pay off US government debt” and that the US had done this before after emerging from WWII.
As the chart below shows, US government debt/GDP (yellow line) is roughly comparable...
Sharing a few thoughts on today’s “lower” core PCE
The Treasury market now appears to have reacted to "lower PCE" by bear steepening.
As I was getting ready to teach this morning, the sell-off was most pronounced in long-dated TIPS and seems to have spread from there.
This is consis...
Sept Treasury Talk column
Rising yields suggest a fiscal policy fork in the road coming between elevated inflation with stagflation risk or recession – exposing familiar cracks in US bank supervision
In my last few Treasury Talk columns, I sketched out a set of cyc...
The Sell-off in Global Bonds and the Ghost of the 2023 US Bank Failures
Rising bond yields suggest a US fiscal policy fork in the road coming between elevated inflation with stagflation risk or recession – exposing familiar cracks in US bank supervision
I am grateful to the Financial Times this week for sharin...
The 365 pg Starling report misses the multi-decade absence of US supervisory quantitative bright lines for interest rate and liquidity risk and the negative influence of monetary policy on S&R
In DC the renewed discussion of SVB’s failure in the Starling report will assuredly be viewed as largely political theater.
Nonetheless, I am choosing to take it as an opportunity once again to try to refocus the US public policy discussio...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Jill is an Executive Professor of Finance at Texas A&M and was an Associate Managing Director for U.S. banks at Moody's. Jill was a vice president at the Dallas Fed and has worked for at the U.S Treasury, Fed Board, and the OCC.
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