My goal is to make economic policy and macroeconomics better.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 254 | Founded | 6 years ago | Last Issue | 12 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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stayathomemacro.substack.comLatest Issues
What will it take to be confident about inflation?
A question I was asked repeatedly this year on Bloomberg: “Are you confident inflation is going back to 2%?” Early in the year, I said yes; the temporary boost from energy prices and tariffs would wane, delivering the necessary disinflation...
Hand the pen to the Committee
Credit: Emilija Manevska via Getty Images.
Three meetings make a trend. Under Chair Warsh, we no longer learn the Committee’s reasoning on the day of the decision. Instead, we must wait three weeks for the FOMC minutes. The statement has b...
Questions for the Chair
Source: Federal Reserve, September 2026 Press Conference.
Last week, the Fed raised its policy rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3¾ to 4 percent, on a unanimous vote. That’s a notable shift: at the Fed’s meeting six weeks ea...
Costly medicine
Fed’s Eccles Building. June 2026. My photo.
It's Fed Week, even if headlines from the Middle East and on AI are stealing some attention. They should. Those stories also drive the inflation risks the Fed is responding to. Wednesday, the Fed...
Something is shifting in the inflation picture
Hike or hold? That is the question when the Fed meets next week. Going in, it’s clear that Fed officials are divided on the answer. The division isn't the kind that a single CPI print will resolve. In today’s post, I explain why I moved rec...
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Authors
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Founder of Sahm Consulting, former Federal Reserve and White House economist.
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