Macro Is Dead
Peter FaracA detailed obituary to macro trading. A deep-dive into when, why and how it died.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Infrequently |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 31 | Founded | 5 years ago | Last Issue | 11 days ago |
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macroisdead.comLatest Issues
Real yields should be higher
So, I got up at 4am to hear the new guy at the Fed speak at his first live meeting. Was it worth it? I’m a huge fan of moving away from the post-GFC hand holding of forward guidance, but taking this away obviates the need for 95% of the com...
When forecasting doom goes wrong
Source
If Donald Trump and Scott Bessent were President and Treasury Secretary in 2008, would Lehman Brothers CDS have ever traded over 150bp?
It isn’t hard to imagine a Truth Social post like the above. While I’m picking a particularly e...
Stop asking "when?". The US has already defaulted!
The dominance of fiscal over monetary policy has finally become mainstream.
My prior work in quantifying the direct effect on growth of fiscal stimulus, which, unlike monetary policy, does not have “long and variable lags” associated with...
Mutually Assured Economic Destruction
Thanks to Jack Marinovic for his help on this piece, specifically with research on the Cold War and the economics of the USSR!
In 1961, the Soviet Union detonated the Tsar Bomba, by far the most powerful nuclear device ever detonate...
How does US growth slow with so much new debt?
Given the recent moves in markets this post couldn’t be at a worse time! However, it’s worth noting that the first time I posted about this model and forecasted bullish US growth was at the worst of the 4th quarter 2023 equity drawdown (-10...
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Macro trader, teaching and thinking differently about macro-economics.
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