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| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 159 | Founded | 5 months ago | Last Issue | 29 hours ago |
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markcherrypayment.substack.comLatest Issues
两个「卖铲人」：BE 燃料电池财报复盘和 CRDO 为什么跌、AEC 到底有没有护城河
两个 AI 基建卖铲人同一天挨打：BE 财报双 beat 却被卖、CRDO 两天跌 19%。但被打下来的是「价格」不是「生意」，顺便拆一拆：MaxLinear 这记闷棍，到底能不能真把 Credo 的护城河捅穿。
今天我看到有俩家公司在经历昨天的暴跌之后继续下跌了10%左右，这让我很好奇因为这两只票表面上八竿子打不着:BE 是做燃料电池、给数据中心供电的; CRDO是做高速互连、给 GPU 集群连线的。 一个管「电」,一个管「线」。他俩的相同点它们是同一类东西:AI 基建里...
今天为什么跌：中期选举、国债收益率、原油、加息——四个宏观变量，怎么推着美股走
原油、通胀、加息、国债收益率不是四件事，是一条因果链；中期选举是另一条独立的线。今天的「科技专杀」，是微观疑虑撞上了脆弱的宏观背景。
今天：这不是全面崩盘，是一次”科技专杀”
背靠背的两份财报：SpaceX 和 Meta 一起，把 AI 交易最核心的问题摊到了桌面上
一个在喊"算力不够卖",一个在说"还要花、但不告诉你花多少"。2027 年,六大 AI 巨头里只有微软一家还能自己造血
这几天财报季开始了，而这里面第一批交卷的里有两家特别值得一起拆：SpaceX和 Meta。
古河电工：日本光纤”御三家”收官之作，那个最宽、最便宜、也最拧巴的”中间孩子”
一半身子还泡在汽车线束和铝里,另一半已经插进了光纤、激光、液冷和电力。古河电工:最宽、最便宜,也最拧巴的那个。
这篇是我们来写日本光纤”御三家”系列的收官。前面写了住友电工这个 5 万亿日元营收的综合电工巨头，光/信息通信只占 6%，是”被稀释的巨人”，便宜、稳、但 AI 弹性被摊薄；藤仓则信息通信占营收 55%、占利润 80%，是”最纯的弹性”，涨得猛、跌得也狠、估值最贵。
Meta 财报前瞻：一台还在加速的广告机器，和一个烧钱的 AI 超级赌注
Muse 很火，但 Meta 真正靠 AI 赚的钱不在 Muse；capex 还会涨，但"烧得起"第一次成了问题。10/21 盘后，三件事定生死。
上周的周报里我们提到接下来三四周是全年最密集的”财报发令枪”，而第一枪就是 Meta 美东 10/21 盘后，而且电话会在美东 4:30pm。它是四大云厂里最早交卷的，我很感兴趣它会如何定调。
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Master’s in Econometrics | Investing in the optical industry with a 400% return ｜ International equity trader ｜
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