Roaming in Bayesland
Massimo FuggettaRoaming in Bayesland explores how we learn, update our beliefs, and navigate uncertainty — in markets and in life — through the lens of Bayesian thinking.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 22 | Founded | 10 months ago | Last Issue | 11 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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Made in Italy CEOs - Subscription
Hello everybody.
Yesterday I sent you an email announcing the launch of the new Made in Italy CEOs publication.
I hope all of you Roaming in Bayesland subscribers will also subscribe to Made in Italy CEOs.
You can do it from here by...
Made in Italy CEOs
In the Welcome post to Roaming in Bayesland at the end of last year, I explained that the publication grew out of the decision to close the Made in Italy Fund. In a subsequent post, I provided additional background and introduced the Made i...
0. Definitions
H = Hypothesis
H̄ = not H = Complement to H
E = Positive (present) Evidence about H
Ē = Negative (absent) Evidence about H
.
P(H) = BR = Base Rate. Unconditional, Prior probability that H is true
P(H̄) = 1 – P(H) = Prior probability...
10. Accuracy
Likelihood Ratios are a convenient way to measure the weight of evidence. They allow us to view Bayes Theorem as a simple linear relationship in odds form, thus neatly depicting what we have called the evidential tug of war – the iterative,...
9. Hume's Likelihood Ratios
We have taken a good look at the Base Rate BR.
Let’s now examine the other component of Bayes Theorem: the Likelihood pair TPR and FPR.
Roaming in Bayesland is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, cons...
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