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Understanding the unseen

Adam Kucharski

Making sense of a noisy, uncertain world with the author of 'The Rules of Contagion' and 'Proof'

Platform
Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesTwice weekly
Issues157SubscribersRead kucharski.substack.com

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#104
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Latest Issues

Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.

How I made some 95% accurate digital twins (ish)

A few months ago, I wrote about the challenges of getting large language models to predict the results of human surveys. The results were… OK. But something had bugged me about the analysis; I couldn’t help but feel there was a better appro...

14 days ago
15
0

AI is normalising n=1 experiments – and that’s a problem

“I developed a simulation model of a random process that’s highly dependent on input variables and I ran it once with no sensitivity analysis.”

16 days ago
34
5

12 visions of probability

Last month, I released CAPphrase (Comparative and Absolute Probability phrase dataset), an open access dataset containing over 150,000 probability-based language judgements. This was based on an online quiz I’d put together, which over 5,00...

23 days ago
20
1

Things I've been reading recently (and a puzzle)

Before we start, here’s a little puzzle to mark the UK release of the paperback edition of Proof this Thursday:

a month ago
11
3

Authors

The writers behind this newsletter.

  • Adam Kucharski

    Mathematician/epidemiologist. Author of Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty and The Rules of Contagion. Bylines in Wired, FT, Guardian, Times, New Scientist.

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