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Understanding the unseen

Adam Kucharski

Making sense of a noisy, uncertain world with the author of 'The Rules of Contagion' and 'Proof'

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Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesTwice weekly
Issues177Founded3 years agoLast Issue9 days ago
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Latest Issues

The problem with prediction in situations that demand action

Last week, I gave a talk at the Wellcome Trust on evidence and uncertainty for their 90th anniversary celebrations. One of the things I talked about was how populations and scientists respond to shifting situations and emerging challenges....

9 days ago
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Things I've been experimenting and reading recently

One of the nice things about AI coding assistants is that a lot of the quick ‘I wonder what this would look like?’ experiments I always seem to have in my head, endlessly floating around well defined but not yet executed, are now 20 minute...

11 days ago
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Don’t 'never-skill' yourself with AI

The other evening, my wife and I wanted to watch a noughties TV comedy show. But we couldn’t, because we didn’t have a subscription to the one streaming service that was showing it. It was frustrating: both of us had previously owned DVDs o...

12 days ago
63
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No, the normal distribution isn't in your gym

You may well seen the below viral image of a weight stack over the years. It’s often shared as evidence that the normal distribution (i.e. bell curve) is everywhere in daily life.

There’s just one problem: it doesn’t show a normal distribu...

23 days ago
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Benchmark bickering

If you follow the news around health and AI, you’ll have probably seen the below figure recently. It’s from a recent paper in Nature Medicine that compared generalist frontier LLMs like Gemini 3.1 and Claude Opus 4.6 with specialist medical...

a month ago
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1

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Authors

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  • Adam Kucharski

    Mathematician/epidemiologist, co-founder of Wholesum, author of Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty. Bylines in Wired, FT, Guardian, Times, New Scientist.

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