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Understanding the unseen

Adam Kucharski

Making sense of a noisy, uncertain world with the author of 'The Rules of Contagion' and 'Proof'

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Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesTwice weekly
Issues164Founded3 years agoLast Issue6 days ago
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Latest Issues

Things I've been thinking and reading recently

Some things I’ve been thinking about

A few weeks ago, an FT piece by Helen Pearson mentioned a trial of sturdier beer glasses to reduce violent attacks. This reminded me of another beer experiment:

Last month, I wrote about how it’s p...

6 days ago
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Does the exact maths matter if the direction is correct?

A recent post on X has been getting a lot of attention, including in some snarky screengrabbed archiving as it has made its way onto various other platforms (snarkiving?)

The reason for its popularity came down to a mathematical claim abo...

11 days ago
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Real signals or artificial stereotypes?

Despite the attention on Claude Code, in many industries Microsoft Copilot has become the go-to for running a data task or quick analysis with AI.

Which raises the question: how good it is at finding insights in a data file?

To test it ou...

13 days ago
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14

Do we need more 'aluminium-standard' evidence?

In 1971, a doctor named Archie Cochrane showed a group of cardiologists the results of a clinical trial he had been running. The response was furious: ‘Archie, we always thought you were unethical. You must stop this trial at once’.

The re...

16 days ago
74
9

Are you over- or under-confident about AI?

If you get an AI output you didn’t expect, it can be tempting to explain it away in hindsight. The result was bad? Well, maybe better instructions would help next time. And if the result was good? Well, maybe it got lucky.

Statistician Ron...

a month ago
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4

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  • Adam Kucharski

    Mathematician/epidemiologist and co-founder of WholeSum. Author of Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty. Bylines in Wired, FT, Guardian, Times, New Scientist.

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