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Mind the Future

Richard Ngo

Understanding the system of the world

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Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesWeekly
Issues22Founded4 years agoLast Issuea month ago
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Latest Issues

Social Theory and Agent Foundations

Lately I’ve been writing a lot about the sociopolitical considerations that economic-style reasoning misses. I view this work as continuous with my agent foundations research; in this post, I lay out some of the connections I see between so...

a month ago
17
1

AI as orderly evacuation vs stampede

tl;dr: A good analogy for AI going well is an orderly evacuation rather than a stampede. Imagine a crowd of people leaving a building. If they all walk calmly, they’ll be fine. But if people start pushing, and panicking, a surge towards the...

2 months ago
35
1

Higher education as class commitment

In a previous post, I argued that Bryan Caplan’s signaling theory isn’t a good explanation for why college graduates get higher-paying jobs. Instead, I claimed, understanding the role of higher education in the modern West requires sociolog...

2 months ago
41
4

Explaining Knightianism on one foot

I’ve tried several times to summarize the core question my research is trying to tackle (and, indeed, I often think of research progress as a process of asking increasingly good core questions).1 This post gives the deepest version of that...

2 months ago
23
4

Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040

Some context for this post: I’ve been working part-time as a consultant for the AI Futures Project over the last year. Most of the work I’ve done for them has involved critiquing and suggesting improvements for their AI 2040 scenario—some o...

4 months ago
172
14

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