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Mind the Future

Richard Ngo

Understanding the system of the world

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Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesWeekly
Issues18Founded4 years agoLast Issue19 days ago
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Latest Issues

Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040

Some context for this post: I’ve been working part-time as a consultant for the AI Futures Project over the last year. Most of the work I’ve done for them has involved critiquing and suggesting improvements for their AI 2040 scenario—some o...

19 days ago
135
9

Agents as webs of beliefs

In this post I’ll sketch out an informal model of intelligent agents as webs of beliefs (or belief webs for short). The belief webs framework pulls together ideas from active inference, agent foundations and machine learning. In doing so it...

a month ago
29
21

Towards a Formal Scientific Epistemology

In my post “Why I’m not a Bayesian”, I argued that the Bayesian approach of assigning credences to propositions with binary truth values only works in simple and restricted domains. Instead, I claimed, a better approach to epistemology is t...

2 months ago
25
1

Economic efficiency often undermines sociopolitical autonomy

Many people in my intellectual circles use economic abstractions as one of their main tools for reasoning about the world. However, this often leads them to overlook how interventions which promote economic efficiency undermine people’s abi...

5 months ago
88
25

Contra Caplan on higher education

Three theories of higher education

Getting an undergraduate degree is very costly. In America, the direct financial cost of attending a private university is typically in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Even when tuition is cheap...

5 months ago
58
21

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