Weekly analysis on global politcal/econ affairs
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川普赢了。我在此前的很多博文中也分析过,民主党换将不仅是险着,更可能使其国会双输。没曾想,民主党的“阴兵”未降,反倒是让共和党狂扫摇摆州。川普不仅是“复辟”了,他的回归意味着民主党既得利益集团要被彻底整肃,有道是天道轮回,对待自己的敌人有多狠,敌人若拿回权柄之后的报复强度就会有多大。然而,川普真的如人们臆想中那样,“全控”美国吗?他的运动式改造美国,就真的能再造辉煌吗?在我看来,川普不仅仅没法全控,而是彻底葬送美国的全球霸权。
尽管四周闪耀着金色的光辉,可是中央已经全被侵蚀,一团漆黑。
我知道,有些人又被套了。我知道,有些人巴不得股市上到4000点解套。我知道,有些势力急了,没有波动性大的资产可做了,自己的实体经济已经不堪入目了。外媒坑人,外资机构坑人,专业机构没有定力坑人。那么多问题,那么多坑,好像牛市已经结束了。
在央行的巴祖卡和大鸣大放之后,过去唉声叹气乃至恨国的群体组织开始亢奋起来,特别是从24号以来一波暴力单边牛市,彻底振奋了自2022疫情以来早已颓靡的资本市场激情。有一句耳熟能详的圈内短语,叫“三根阳线改变信仰”。的确,如果没有这波巴祖卡牛市,中国资本市场可以持续颓靡很长一段时间,但牛市实实在在地发生了,那一切过去的讨论似乎也就失去了意义。问题是,这根阳线能持续多久?基本面是否有改善呢?
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