MJFinance’s Newsletter
MJFinanceWeekly analysis on global politcal/econ affairs
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Publishes | Weekly | Issues | 165 |
| Subscribers | Read | mjfinance.substack.com |
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五仁随笔250128——不要低估“美股美元“
今天是除夕，首先祝所有读者新春快乐、身体健康、阖家幸福、万事如意！正当举国同庆之时，近两天“横空出世”的deepseek推出了新的r1模型，席卷全球，不仅在应用榜上超过OpenAI，更是因其开源的特性，引发了全球研究者和实践者的热议。由于其训练模型成本远低于美国同类模型，引发了市场对于美国AI泡沫以及过度资本开支的恐慌——昨天美国纳指恐慌性下跌，而作为其中翘楚的英伟达更是跌掉了超过四千亿美元的市值。有很多人还沉浸在事情本身，认为这是“改变国运”的一件大事。然而，人们往往低估了...
五仁短评250121——野猫政治
野猫银行(wildcat banking)是一个我很喜欢的词汇，指19世纪中叶美国州特许银行发行纸币的行为。这些野猫银行主要存续于1836年至1865年的所谓“自由银行时期”，即无央行的时代。各州轻易地发放银行特许经营权，并且几乎没有或完全没有实施有效的监管。银行倒闭和彻头彻尾的骗局经常发生，导致人们手中的货币变得一文不值。一般在当时，银行的平均寿命只有五年，而基本待美国内战开始，近乎一半的美国银行已经倒闭。因此野猫银行是一种非常不靠谱的金融组织形式，但有趣的是就是在野猫银行...
五仁随笔250115——二战后世界秩序已经终结
1945年2月，在今克里米亚的雅尔塔，苏联领导人斯大林和美国总统罗斯福达成了对于二次世界大战后世界局势处理方面的共识。一般认为，雅尔塔体系在苏联解体后就已经终结，然而事实上，二战后的世界格局中，许多悬而未决的问题实际上并未解决，这其中最直接的莫过于冷战铁幕落下后所造成的各种政治分界问题——仅在亚洲：台湾问题、南北朝鲜问题、中东问题、印巴问题等，每一个都是十分棘手的地缘政治困境。而其源头实际上就在于雅尔塔会议中，美苏两国实际上并没有真正的默契，而只是对于各自瓜分世界有了一定的确...
五仁随笔250110——懂王的“服从性测试”
最近新年伊始，国际政治领域最为人津津乐道的话题莫过于懂王无厘头的“合并”诉求，他提出了三个地方：加拿大、格陵兰、巴拿马。很多人都以为懂王是在扯淡，甚至是在胡闹，但在我看来，懂王非但完全知道自己想要什么，他其实是在做一个国际政治领域的“服从性测试”，而这个测试的结果好坏其实都不影响他的施政，反倒是给了他很多空气筹码来进行下一步对世界各个地区的盘剥。尽管很多人认为这是一种美国霸权衰落的象征，然而从“术”的层面，懂王绝对有自己的政治算盘，且听我慢慢道来。
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