Probability Tree's Substack
Probability Tree InvestingWhy is the stock cheap, what will get it moving, what are the risks and how to size and enter the position. This is what I look at.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 17 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | a year ago |
| Active | |||||
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mrm7112.substack.comLatest Issues
Quick Update on Brighthouse Financial's Potential Sale
I took a roughly 2.5% position in the stock after there was a report in the Financial Times that they are looking for a buyer. I took a position after it jumped from ~$50 to $62 on the news. It is now only a little above my cost base.
I ha...
How to do well in stocks. No, really. This is how you do well.
As the title states.
The headline seems clickbait. But it’s the truth.
SCR: The best play in oil sands trading at a deep discount.
The company I am writing about is called Strathcona Resources a Canadian oil sands play. It is now the 5th largest oil producer in Canada. This is a pretty big position for me and my cost basis is $29. You can buy it for cheaper.
All numb...
Buying Gold Stocks With Hedges On The GLD. A 2025 Playbook.
One interesting note before I start. Gold stocks have historically traded at very high valuations. I could not wrap my head around the valuations when gold was below $2000. Now that valuations are much more reasonable there does not seem to...
My top plays based on risk level 1 to 10
Your position sizing should be based on the level of risk in your investment.
The lower the risk, the lower the chance of permanent capital loss, the higher your concentration. Add in low risk with more catalysts then you have a good inve...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Former university TA in accounting and finance. I enjoy forensic accounting and business valuation. I have been running my own private hedge fund since 2012.
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