Overweight Skepticism
SkepticFinancial Analysis from a retired accountant who worked in SaaS for a decade.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 15 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 2 months ago |
| Active | |||||
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overweightskepticism.substack.comLatest Issues
NVIDIA's Price Is a Forecast of Someone Else's Budget
I don't own any NVIDIA directly but their unstoppable growth now means that they form 7.5-8% of the S&P500 and an absolutely staggering 24.73% of the index's growth in operating income, first by a factor of two over the next contributor.[0]...
CAPE is 41, Is This 1999 Again?
The last time the CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings) ratio was 41 was during the dot com bubble in 1999. The subsequent decade returned -5.92% per annum. The worst 10-year return in American stock market history started in March 1...
Do OpenAI and Anthropic really make 70% of Hyperscalers' growth?
MZ, August 24, 2026
Disclosure: I own Microsoft directly, a legacy of the nine years I spent working there. My Amazon and Alphabet exposure is through index funds. Most of those nine years were spent selling Azure, which is the reason I th...
The Vanishing Free Cash Flow Yield
MZ, July 31, 2026
I own Microsoft shares, accumulated over nine years working there. Everything else here I hold only the way most people do, through index funds. Take the Microsoft section with that in mind.
Thanks for reading Overweight...
AI's Cash Cushion Runs Out Around Q3
MZ, June 30, 2026
I do not own any of these companies directly, which sounds conflict-free until you realise almost nobody can say it and mean it. NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Broadcom sit at the top of nearly every...
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The writers behind this newsletter.
Chartered Accountant with 10 years of SaaS sales and an obsession with charts and data. I build DCF models, run Monte Carlo simulations, and write about what the numbers actually say.
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