Policy Tensor
Official blog of the Policy Tensor.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 569 | Founded | 5 years ago | Last Issue | 7 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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policytensor.substack.comLatest Issues
Escalate to Deescalate
By now it is clear that Iran has counter-escalated with a broad attack on US bases in the Gulf littoral.
By now it is clear that Iran has counter-escalated with a broad attack on US bases in the Gulf littoral. How did we get here from ‘a d...
The Ben Gurion Risk Model
What would a counter-air attack look like?
The FT reported that fifty-two US combat aircraft are parked at Ben Gurion International airport. They have been parked there because the forward airbases on the Gulf littoral have been badly dama...
Does Iran Even Want a Deal?
Perhaps not
The Iranians are playing serious hard ball now. Before JD Vance’s trip to Islamabad, the Iranians declared that for talks to proceed, the US had to respect the ceasefire and force the Israelis to cease their attacks on the Shia...
An Equilibrium Model of Counter-Base War in the Western Pacific
During the 2026 war, Iran was able to more or less destroy all US bases on the Gulf littoral using cheap and plentiful short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and drones, forcing the evacuation of most US military personnel and aircraft. CNN...
On Armed Bargaining in Islamabad
Can Vance play a weak hand well?
The principal problem of war termination in the Iran war is the US inability to credibly reassure Iran that the two aggressors will not attack it again, a paramount objective for the Iranians. This is a har...
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