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Latest Issues

Does Iran Even Want a Deal?

Perhaps not

The Iranians are playing serious hard ball now. Before JD Vance’s trip to Islamabad, the Iranians declared that for talks to proceed, the US had to respect the ceasefire and force the Israelis to cease their attacks on the Shia...

6 days ago
27
Paid

An Equilibrium Model of Counter-Base War in the Western Pacific

During the 2026 war, Iran was able to more or less destroy all US bases on the Gulf littoral using cheap and plentiful short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and drones, forcing the evacuation of most US military personnel and aircraft. CNN...

15 days ago
66
17

On Armed Bargaining in Islamabad

Can Vance play a weak hand well?

The principal problem of war termination in the Iran war is the US inability to credibly reassure Iran that the two aggressors will not attack it again, a paramount objective for the Iranians. This is a har...

a month ago
37
5
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Iran is a Great Power

No special pleading

In 1904, European military observers in the Far East relayed that Japan had beaten the Russians. Henceforth, Japan would be recognized as a great power. All the great powers are recognized by their performance on the ba...

2 months ago
95
2
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The Hormuz Weapon

Iran is now the regional hegemon of the gulf

Nicholas Mulder, a personal friend and a very sharp knife, writes in the Financial Times that the Hormuz weapon is an economic weapon. I do not think that is a good way to think about this issue...

2 months ago
43
1
Paid

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