Recession / Turbulence Model Updates
Terrence ZhangPeriodic updates on the Recession Model and Turbulence Indicator
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terrencezhang.substack.comLatest Issues
Recession Model Update (August 2022)
Clash of the Definitions
The latest negative real GDP print has re-ignited the debate over what defines a recession:
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The “negative real GDP” definition: two consecutive quarters of negative quarter-over-quarter real GDP.
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Th...
Recession Model Update (June 2022)
Friends,
Unsurprisingly, the model values have been marching upwards as the general public becomes more aware of the possibility for a recession soon.
Current Values (as of June 8, 2022)
Google Trends showing historically high search...
Recession Model Update (March 2022)
Friends,
Just 2 quick updates for you: one on the model, and one on a useful but under-mentioned inflation forecasting tool.
Current Values (as of March 8, 2022)
24-Month Value Remains Elevated
Immediately following a recession...
Recession Model Update (May 2021)
Friends,
Surprisingly, model values spiked up this month. But I believe this is caused by an arithmetic glitch rather than a deeper underlying signal. Explanation is below.
Current Values (as of May 8, 2021)
The Short Story
I t...
Recession Model Update (April 2021)
Friends,
Current Values (as of April 8, 2021)
Box Office Recovery
People are finally heading back to movie theaters. Last week’s U.S. movie theater revenue hit $40 million, which is the highest weekly revenue number since the 202...
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