Risk Premium: Research
Brian A.Deep dive analysis of individual companies and securities. This is a separate newsletter from my main page: Risk Premium. So if you enjoy the content over there, I encourage you to sign up here as well!
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 54 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 4 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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riskpremiumresearch.substack.comLatest Issues
Netflix is down nearly 50%: Are their glory days behind them?
Netflix is now back to where it was trading at during the post Covid peak. Meanwhile, their earnings per share is up 180% over that same period. The stock was arguably very expensive through much of the last decade (often trading above 50x...
The Market Says Quantumscape Has a 10% Chance of Winning. Is It Right?
Quantumscape has been taken to the woodshed so far this year. With that being the case, I thought it would be worth posting an update.
Implied Success Probability
In my full valuation, I modeled Quantumscape's expected value using a pr...
Is Verizon a Buy?
The more I look at Verizon and some of these other telecom names, the more I see Buffett’s railroad bet back in the early 2010s. These are capital intensive, unsexy businesses that spit out a ton of cash. They are the legacy fixed infrastru...
Forecasting Dilution
A dilution screen with current at-risk companies is located at the bottom of the article.
If you’re an investor in small cap stocks or early stage companies, you might be well acquainted with the feeling of an overnight dilution eve...
Lost Decades
Summary
This summary updates regularly — the chart and probability prediction below reflect current / up-to-date values. Methodology and findings follow.
The chart above shows the likelihood of experiencing a period of long term underpe...
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