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Running the Numbers

Financial markets and macroeconomics | Structured public markets research, valuation work and portfolio analysis.

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Issues22Founded7 months agoLast Issue3 months ago
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Latest Issues

The Market State

I have spent the past month building a market research environment that can move through hundreds of linked ideas, test them against current data and return a view only after the evidence has been compared across several independent branche...

3 months ago
6
1

Portfolio Construction in an Expensive US Market

US equities are sending two different signals.

Recent valuations imply confidence, with the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio near levels seen only during previous market extremes. Earnings forecasts are equally demanding, with i...

3 months ago
13
2

The Mechanics Behind Short-Term Price Movements

  • An ETF arbitrage desk may need to buy or sell an underlying basket to complete a creation or redemption

    • An options dealer may need to adjust a hedge as prices and implied volatility change.

    • A fund tracking VWAP or the closing pr...

3 months ago
12

From Institutional Flows to Retail Execution: Vistra and MicroStrategy

A look at Vistra, MicroStrategy and hedge fund replication: how retail investors can benefit from institutional signals

This article is a continuation of the previous article on what retail investors can learn from institutional flows.

3 months ago
8
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What Retail Investors Can Learn From Institutional Flows

The financial landscape in 2026 is defined by a transition in how institutional allocators deploy capital. Rather than pursuing broad, passive index diversification, dominant hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds and multi-asset managers are...

3 months ago
16

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