Sam’s Substack
Sam DeRosa-FaragExamining economics and financial market changes
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 36 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 11 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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The Productivity Cycle: What Replaces the Demographic Dividend?
I. The problem: one identity, and only one driver left in it
Everything in this analysis follows from an accounting identity that has been in the textbooks since Solow in 1957 and that nobody disputes:
Real output growth = growth i...
Two Percent Is Not One Thing: When the Fed Can't Rescue You
The source of inflation tells you what the central bank will do when something breaks. That, more than the CPI print itself, is what prices every asset you own.
If inflation is falling because productivity is rising, a growth scare is a de...
Who Gets Paid? Capital Returns Across Eight General-Purpose Technology Buildouts
1. Objective and method
This note addresses a single question: when a general-purpose technology succeeds, who captures the return on the capital that built it?
Technological success is assumed rather than tested. In all eight cycles...
The Technology Worked. The Capital Didn't.
The objective
This is an attempt to answer one question with data rather than analogy: when a general-purpose technology arrives, who gets paid?
To answer it, we need six things measured on the same timeline, not asserted separately:...
The Disruption Model Beat Its Benchmarks by 28–44% Since 2000
The headline
Since 2000, the disruption model beat the Russell 2000 by 32% of the index’s own return, and the Euro Small Cap by 44%. In credit, it beat the Morningstar LSTA leveraged-loan index by 28%. The same model outperformed across Eu...
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The writers behind this newsletter.
Recognized credit market leader with 13 years on the All-American Fixed Income Research Team. First in key areas incl. market value CBOs, HY loan textbooks, and industry-default insights. Frequent global keynote speaker at 30+ events/year.
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