
invest, AI/ML, venture, and thoughts
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大選後的第二天,市場想通了。我希望大家都有看到我週三盤前的 Note。
周三那場選後狂歡,只持續了 24 小時。周四開盤,資金殺聲震天,沒有任何一個角落得以倖免——科技、工業、能源、甚至消費必需品,全面翻紅變綠。道瓊斯跌1,835點(-3.4%),S&P 500重挫4.3%,Nasdaq暴跌5.5%,正式進入修正領域。費城半導體指數單日崩跌12%,創下COVID以來最慘單日跌幅。Nasdaq 100蒸...
選舉結果落地,市場最大的敵人——不確定性——終於暫時退場。道瓊大漲 1569 點,漲幅 3%,創史上第五大單日點數漲幅,超越 2024 年川普勝選隔日的 1500 點紀錄;標普 500 上漲 1.6%,納斯達克上漲 1.4%。股票期貨在開票夜一度重挫,然而當民主黨掌控國會兩院的規模逐漸明朗,資金迅速逆轉。確定性本身,就是最好的催化劑。
然而,這一天並非所有人都在慶祝。市場對「民主黨全面執政」的解讀,在...
終於,市場在連跌三日後喘了一口氣。標普 500 上漲 0.4%,納斯達克上漲 0.8%,道瓊則逆向下跌 0.4%。這是一次典型的「財報驅動、晶片領漲」的技術性反彈——SOXX 半導體 ETF 收漲 2.5%,Nvidia 漲 2%,Broadcom 漲 3%,Intel 在連跌三日累跌 37% 後終於小漲 1%。市場在等待一個訊號,而 AMD 的財報,就是那個訊號。
1...
十月的創傷尚未癒合,十一月的第一個交易日繼續考驗市場的耐心。納斯達克下跌 1.1%,標普 500 下跌 0.5%,道瓊工業指數微漲 0.4%,呈現出典型的「科技繼續賣、舊經濟繼續買」輪動格局。盤中曾因中東外交訊號短暫反彈,但下午科技股重新走弱,漲幅全數回吐。這已是納斯達克連續第三個交易日出現較大跌幅,而十月那 5.3% 的單月跌幅,如幽靈般持續壓制市場情緒。
十月最後兩週,是 AI Trade 從信仰走向審計的兩週。Meta 在 10 月 21 日率先交卷,Alphabet、Microsoft、Amazon 接著在 28、29 日連袂登場,四份財報攤開來,雲端營收沒有一家是差的,Google Cloud 年增 103%,AWS 仍在近 18 季最快的成長軌道上。然而市場這一次不看營收表,它翻到了現金流量表的最後一行。
結果是 Nasdaq 100 十月單月下跌 6.7%,創下...
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The writers behind this newsletter.
I work in capital markets, tracking the pulse of stocks and investments. Beyond that, I explore philosophy to understand the deeper connections between humanity and the universe.
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