Sentinel Global Risks Watch
Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur, belikewaterWe identify and discuss the most important warning signs of global catastrophic risks for you by parsing millions of news pieces and discussing them with our elite forecasters.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 123 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 9 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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blog.sentinel-team.orgLatest Issues
🟩 US-Iran ceasefire breaks, OpenAI releases GPT-5.6, China and the US consider AI trade restrictions || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #28/2026
Executive summary
Geopolitics: The US-Iran ceasefire broke down, and the US did not end up sending a delegation for a fresh round of talks in Oman.
- Will Iran take fees from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz at the beginning...
🟩 Anthropic export controls lifted, Russia closed border crossings with some neighbors, OpenAI mulls giving US a 5% stake || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #27/2026
Executive summary
Geopolitics: Russia closed its railway border crossings with Estonia, Latvia and Finland, prompting speculation about a possible mobilization of troops.
- Before January 2, 2027, will Russia launch a mass mobilizatio...
🟩 US and Iran resumed fighting before renewing ceasefire, Crimea declared state of emergency, access to new OpenAI model restricted || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #26/2026
Executive summary
Geopolitics: Shipping traffic markedly rose in the Strait of Hormuz before falling back because of renewed fighting between the US and Iran, who later agreed to a renewed ceasefire. Russian-occupied Crimea declared an e...
🟩 Strait of Hormuz traffic rises, US fears China has access to restricted chip manufacturing machine, Ebola deaths rapidly increase || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #25/2026
Executive summary
Geopolitics: A peace deal between the US and Iran was officially signed by both parties, and traffic subsequently rose in the Strait of Hormuz but remained well below pre-war levels. Ukraine carried out its largest at...
🟩 Trump administration imposes export controls on new Anthropic model, US-Iran peace deal announced, Ebola spreads further || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #24/2026
Executive summary
Geopolitics: The US and Iran announced that a peace deal has been agreed. Putin acknowledged that Ukraine’s strikes on Russian territory are harming Russia’s economy.
- Before 2027, will a ceasefire (covering land, s...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Head of foresight at Sentinel, a team covering the top global catastrophic risks each week. Also write a monthly forecasting newsletter at forecasting.substack.com
AI Policy Researcher at ControlAI
Superforecaster at Good Judgment. Also forecasting at Sentinel, Swift Centre, Samotsvety, RAND and a hedge fund. Impartial beneficence enthusiast.
Forecasting.
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