Sentinel Global Risks Watch
Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur, belikewaterWe identify and discuss the most important warning signs of global catastrophic risks for you by parsing millions of news pieces and discussing them with our elite forecasters.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 120 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 6 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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blog.sentinel-team.orgLatest Issues
🟩 Strait of Hormuz traffic rises, US fears China has access to restricted chip manufacturing machine, Ebola deaths rapidly increase || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #25/2026
Executive summary
Geopolitics: A peace deal between the US and Iran was officially signed by both parties, and traffic subsequently rose in the Strait of Hormuz but remained well below pre-war levels. Ukraine carried out its largest at...
🟩 Trump administration imposes export controls on new Anthropic model, US-Iran peace deal announced, Ebola spreads further || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #24/2026
Executive summary
Geopolitics: The US and Iran announced that a peace deal has been agreed. Putin acknowledged that Ukraine’s strikes on Russian territory are harming Russia’s economy.
- Before 2027, will a ceasefire (covering land, s...
🟩 Iran and Israel exchange fire for first time since April, Trump signs AI executive order, Ebola outbreak grows || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #23/2026
Executive summary
Geopolitics: Iran and Israel exchanged fire for the first time since the fragile ceasefire began in April. A Ukrainian maritime drone crashed into a Black Sea port in Romania.
- Before September 2026, will a NATO cou...
🟩 Russian drone hits Romanian apartment block, Ebola deaths rise at slower pace, Anthropic surpasses OpenAI valuation || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #22/2026
Executive summary
Geopolitics: A Russian drone hit an apartment building in Romania, injuring two people. Israel continues to strike Lebanon and Gaza.
- Will at least 10,000 deaths in Gaza and Lebanon be attributed to Israeli military...
🟩 Renewed US-Iran negotiations, OpenAI and DeepMind models solve Erdos problems, Ebola deaths increase || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #21/2026
Executive summary
Geopolitics: Trump said that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is near. Rubio called Cuba a leading state sponsor of terror and questioned whether diplomacy with the regime would work.
- Will the US car...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Head of foresight at Sentinel, a team covering the top global catastrophic risks each week. Also write a monthly forecasting newsletter at forecasting.substack.com
AI Policy Researcher at ControlAI
Superforecaster at Good Judgment. Also forecasting at Sentinel, Swift Centre, Samotsvety, RAND and a hedge fund. Impartial beneficence enthusiast.
Forecasting.
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