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Sentinel Global Risks Watch

Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur, belikewater
Tens of paid subscribers

We identify and discuss the most important warning signs of global catastrophic risks for you by parsing millions of news pieces and discussing them with our elite forecasters.

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Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesWeekly
Issues132Founded2 years agoLast Issue7 days ago
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Latest Issues

🟡 Dozens of US politicians call for AI regulation, Anthropic urges slowdown, Houthis advance in Yemen and Red Sea || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #37/2026

Executive summary

Technology and AI: The resignation of Jacob Coxon from Anthropic over fears about existential risk went viral, and dozens of US politicians voiced support for AI regulation. Dario Amodei, Sam Altman and Elon Musk called...

7 days ago
21
4

🟡 OpenAI president refers to new GPT-6 Astra model as AGI, another AI agent message board revealed, Witkoff and Kushner visit Moscow || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #36/2026

Executive summary

Technology and AI: OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra. Its president, Greg Brockman, labelled it “AGI.” Another group of OpenAI agents was found to have escaped containment and to have used a German wiki to build a message boa...

14 days ago
21
4

🟡 CIA Director visits Moscow, fresh US-Iran strikes, new revelations about the OpenAI-Hugging Face incident || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #35/2026

Executive summary

Technology and AI: OpenAI, METR and Redwood research released the findings of investigations into the Hugging Face incident.

  • By September 2027, will a rogue AI successfully exfiltrate and run proprietary AI model w...
21 days ago
21
4

🟡 OpenAI’s largest frontier RL run remains paused, mysterious model appears on OpenRouter, US unveils new sanctions on Iran || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #34/2026

Executive summary

Technology and AI: OpenAI says their largest planned frontier RL run remains on pause. A stealth model known as ‘Ox Alpha’ was released on OpenRouter and impressed users, sparking debate about which lab is behind it....

a month ago
19
3

🟡 Chinese company delays release of AI model weights, hackers use autonomous agents to compromise Taiwanese agencies, Trump cuts US participation in military exercises with South Korea || Global Risk

Executive summary

Technology and AI: A Chinese open-source AI company is delaying the release of model weights for the first time, citing cyber risks. Anthropic won’t release what it calls “Model 2”. Bernie Sanders says the US Senate cou...

a month ago
18
4

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Authors

The writers behind this newsletter.

  • Nuño Sempere

    Head of foresight at Sentinel, a team covering the top global catastrophic risks each week. Also write a monthly forecasting newsletter at forecasting.substack.com

  • Tolga Bilge

    AI Policy Researcher at ControlAI

  • Vidur Kapur

    Superforecaster at Good Judgment. Also forecasting with Sentinel, Swift Centre, Samotsvety and a hedge fund, and formerly with RAND. Impartial beneficence enthusiast.

  • belikewater

    Forecasting.

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