Sentinel Global Risks Watch
Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur, belikewaterWe identify and discuss the most important warning signs of global catastrophic risks for you by parsing millions of news pieces and discussing them with our elite forecasters.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 126 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 8 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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blog.sentinel-team.orgLatest Issues
🟡 Iran War widens, OpenAI and Anthropic find evidence of more cyber breaches, frontier AI staff sign open letter || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #31/2026
Executive summary
Geopolitics: The Iran War widened, with a port in Egypt being hit, Tehran threatening Cyprus and Bulgaria, and Ukraine striking an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. Hamas said it would give up its heavy weapons if Isra...
🟡 OpenAI model breaches containment, Houthis and Saudis clash, US and Iran pause attacks for over two days || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #30/2026
Executive summary
Technology and AI: A combination of OpenAI models was revealed to be behind the recent cybersecurity breach at Hugging Face (🟡). A bipartisan bill named the AI Kill Switch Act was introduced to the US House of Represen...
🟩 US-Iran ceasefire breaks, OpenAI releases GPT-5.6, China and the US consider AI trade restrictions || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #28/2026
Executive summary
Geopolitics: The US-Iran ceasefire broke down, and the US did not end up sending a delegation for a fresh round of talks in Oman.
- Will Iran take fees from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz at the beginning...
🟩 Anthropic export controls lifted, Russia closed border crossings with some neighbors, OpenAI mulls giving US a 5% stake || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #27/2026
Executive summary
Geopolitics: Russia closed its railway border crossings with Estonia, Latvia and Finland, prompting speculation about a possible mobilization of troops.
- Before January 2, 2027, will Russia launch a mass mobilizatio...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Head of foresight at Sentinel, a team covering the top global catastrophic risks each week. Also write a monthly forecasting newsletter at forecasting.substack.com
AI Policy Researcher at ControlAI
Superforecaster at Good Judgment. Also forecasting with Sentinel, Swift Centre, Samotsvety and a hedge fund, and formerly with RAND. Impartial beneficence enthusiast.
Forecasting.
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