Sentinel Global Risks Watch
Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur, belikewaterWe identify and discuss the most important warning signs of global catastrophic risks for you by parsing millions of news pieces and discussing them with our elite forecasters.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 114 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 7 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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blog.sentinel-team.orgLatest Issues
🟡 US-Iran stalemate continues, Putin says Ukraine war may come to an end, White House considers AI executive order || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #19/2026
Executive summary
Geopolitics: Donald Trump called Iran’s response to the US’ latest peace proposal “totally unacceptable”. Vladimir Putin hinted that the Russia-Ukraine war may be nearing an end.
- Will Russia and Ukraine end the war...
🟡 Iran says it will target US naval vessels, UAE leaves OPEC, GPT-5.5 similar to Mythos on cyber tasks || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #18/2026
Executive summary
Geopolitics: Iran unveiled a fresh peace proposal, but Trump was not satisfied with it and says that Iran has not paid a big enough price for the war to end yet. The US said it would guide stranded vessels through t...
🟡 US-Iran peace talks called off, unauthorized access to Claude Mythos, shots fired at Trump dinner, El Niño coming || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #17/2026
Executive summary
Geopolitics: Another round of peace talks between the US and Iran failed to materialise, with Iran only committing to indirect talks in Islamabad and US negotiators cancelling their trip to Pakistan.
- Will direct or...
🟡 US seizes Iranian cargo ship, Iran-US peace talks uncertain, cyberattack estimates || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #16/2026
Executive summary
Geopolitics: The US seized an Iranian cargo ship while enforcing its blockade of Iranian ports. Iran says it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the blockade ends.
- Will there still be ongoing hostilities be...
🟡 US to blockade Iranian ports, Iran peace talks end without agreement, Anthropic Mythos released to tech and cyber firms || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #15/2026
Executive summary
Geopolitics: Iran and the US failed to reach an agreement, and the US is now effectively blockading traffic to and from Iranian ports. A fragile ceasefire between the two countries officially remains in place.
- What...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Head of foresight at Sentinel, a team covering the top global catastrophic risks each week. Also write a monthly forecasting newsletter at forecasting.substack.com
AI Policy Researcher at ControlAI
Superforecaster at Good Judgment. Also forecasting at Sentinel, Swift Centre, Samotsvety, RAND and a hedge fund. Impartial beneficence enthusiast.
Forecasting.
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