Sentinel Global Risks Watch
Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur, belikewaterWe identify and discuss the most important warning signs of global catastrophic risks for you by parsing millions of news pieces and discussing them with our elite forecasters.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 129 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 4 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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blog.sentinel-team.orgLatest Issues
🟡 OpenAI’s largest frontier RL run remains paused, mysterious model appears on OpenRouter, US unveils new sanctions on Iran || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #34/2026
Executive summary
Technology and AI: OpenAI says their largest planned frontier RL run remains on pause. A stealth model known as ‘Ox Alpha’ was released on OpenRouter and impressed users, sparking debate about which lab is behind it....
🟡 Chinese company delays release of AI model weights, hackers use autonomous agents to compromise Taiwanese agencies, Trump cuts US participation in military exercises with South Korea || Global Risk
Executive summary
Technology and AI: A Chinese open-source AI company is delaying the release of model weights for the first time, citing cyber risks. Anthropic won’t release what it calls “Model 2”. Bernie Sanders says the US Senate cou...
🟡 OpenAI incident involved multi-agent cooperation, US-Iran deal still out of reach, Israel rejects Trump’s Gaza plan || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #32/2026
Executive summary
Technology and AI: OpenAI provided more details about the attack on Hugging Face, revealing that AI agents cooperated and covertly built a message board. Their new Astra model will potentially be the first to be classed...
🟡 Iran War widens, OpenAI and Anthropic find evidence of more cyber breaches, frontier AI staff sign open letter || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #31/2026
Executive summary
Geopolitics: The Iran War widened, with a port in Egypt being hit, Tehran threatening Cyprus and Bulgaria, and Ukraine striking an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. Hamas said it would give up its heavy weapons if Isra...
🟡 OpenAI model breaches containment, Houthis and Saudis clash, US and Iran pause attacks for over two days || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #30/2026
Executive summary
Technology and AI: A combination of OpenAI models was revealed to be behind the recent cybersecurity breach at Hugging Face (🟡). A bipartisan bill named the AI Kill Switch Act was introduced to the US House of Represen...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Head of foresight at Sentinel, a team covering the top global catastrophic risks each week. Also write a monthly forecasting newsletter at forecasting.substack.com
AI Policy Researcher at ControlAI
Superforecaster at Good Judgment. Also forecasting with Sentinel, Swift Centre, Samotsvety and a hedge fund, and formerly with RAND. Impartial beneficence enthusiast.
Forecasting.
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