Seriously, Marvin?!
Marvin BarthWhere the consensus ends and curiosity begins.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 49 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 5 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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seriouslymarvin.substack.comLatest Issues
Faith and folly
Fair bets
Suppose that I show you two urns, each filled with 100 marbles. The first urn has 50 red marbles and 50 black. The second urn also has 100 marbles of red and black, but their proportions are unknown. If I offered you the chanc...
Themistocles’ lesson for the Fed
Today I am giving a presentation on “Risks, Challenges and Opportunities” at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference. This piece, focused on the risks to Fed independence with some insights into my forecasting method, is based on...
The madness of crowds
Rage returns
A triumvirate of events last week illustrated the continued relevance of “The Politics of Rage,” a detailed study I wrote a decade ago on the origins, causes and future of populism.1 The first was the defeat of Hungarian Pr...
Perspective
Note: Just as I was scheduling this to publish, news of the two-weeks ceasefire and opening of the Strait of Hormuz was announced. Scenario 1 now could be recast as a temporary ceasefire, but otherwise there is little here that I woul...
Strange action at a distance
Fool me once, shame on you; fool me 7,264 times...
Despite the supposed good news, my heart sank when I read Donald Trump’s Monday morning “truth” that he’d had “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” with Iran over the weekend.1 I ha...
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| Subscribers | Engagement | 76 | Monthly Web Visits | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accepts Sponsors | Estimated Cost per Ad | ||||
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
A Ph.D. economist, strategist and portfolio manager with experience at major global banks, asset managers, & across the policy spectrum, including the Federal Reserve Board, the U.S. Treasury Department, & the Bank for International Settlements.
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