
Observations on intraday market behaviour, structure, and context — explored through data, not prediction.
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When VIX gaps down and keeps falling, what has the S&P 500 done over the next ten trading days?
The VIX chart below prompted a fairly simple question.
The S&P 500 rebounds 84 points. Mosaic examines 13 comparable Friday sessions and the opening condition still to be confirmed.
Morning summary
A strong US session and a positive overnight lead for AUS200 — but what happened when Friday's initial futures reopen was flat or lower?
I use Mosaic to examine 13 previous occasions matching this combination.
I cover:
• ASX session fini...
The overnight FOMC session finished with the S&P 500 down 35 points, and the early-strength/weak-London-open pattern held again. The combined Asia and London first session gained 12 points, but the London first hour lost...
After FOMC, the S&P 500 finished lower but closed at least 20 points off the global low. What happened the next day in the historical sample?
I use Mosaic to examine seven previous occasions matching that combination.
I cover:
• The comb...
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The writers behind this newsletter.
Intraday market structure, quantified. I analyse index behaviour across sessions, events, and regimes, turning history into data and probabilities. Founder of Mosaic.trade, an intraday data and AI platform for serious traders.
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