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The fake business cycle keeps surprising markets and central banks and the volatility in the cyclical components of the economy will likely keep markets trading from one extreme to another.
The US is effectively running a war economy and the ultimate headache is typically not seen until the production pace is slowed. Meanwhile, Yellen allows for stealth QT in upcoming weeks and months.
After having traveled to London last week, I am left with a vibe of a head fake reflation narrative. We are truly late in the cycle, which opens the door for super interesting bets.
Recession chasing is getting increasingly weak as an investment strategy with fewer and fewer recessions around. Is the business cycle still alive and is it big enough to matter for markets?
Other publications recommended by the authors of this newsletter.
The writers behind this newsletter.
Global macro/markets, “Glee” fan and Madridista.
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