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The Fed will get plenty of opportunities to frontload cuts further this year as the labor market remains weak. Is this all driven by the election season? And why is the labor market so out of sync?
The decision between a 25bp or 50bp rate hike is of utmost importance this week. In either case, it likely makes sense to continue leaning into Fixed Income, as markets are neglecting inflation.
There is more fundamental merit to the sell-off we are currently experiencing than the one we faced in July. China has come to a halt, and we are facing a USD liquidity withdrawal. Dash for USD cash!
The manufacturing rebound in H1 2024 was another head-fake, and we were correct in predicting that everyone would call off the recession. Now, the market is likely going to "reprice" the recession.
Other publications recommended by the authors of this newsletter.
The writers behind this newsletter.
Global macro/markets, “Glee” fan and Madridista.
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