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Supernormal Returns

Erica York

Quick, clear insights on economic policy decisions.

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Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesWeekly
Issues20Founded8 months agoLast Issue2 months ago
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Artwork for Supernormal Returns

Latest Issues

Compared to what?

The last week brought several retrospective analyses of President Trump’s first year of reciprocal tariffs, ranging from victory laps to selective trend line comparison to careful examination of what’s been learned.

It will take much longe...

2 months ago
2

Looking for Trump’s $18 trillion

This week marks the one-year anniversary of “Liberation Day” and President Trump’s global tariff scheme. Earlier this year, President Trump defended his tariff strategy by touting that he has “secured commitments for more than $18 trillion,...

2 months ago
3

Tariff refunds loading

Customs and Border Protection (CBP) continues preparing to refund more than $166 billion in unlawfully collected tariffs plus interest. As of March 19, CBP reported that the various components of a new refund tool under development are betw...

3 months ago

New Section 301 tariff investigations affect 99% of US goods imports

Amid the geopolitical developments of the past week, the Trump administration launched multiple new Section 301 investigations, laying the groundwork to replace the now unlawful IEEPA tariffs that affected nearly all US trade partners.

An...

3 months ago
3

To passthrough or not passthrough

The February Beige Book released last week included several reports made before the Supreme Court’s tariff decision. The overarching narrative was that the price effects of tariffs are still actively working through supply chains, with some...

3 months ago
5

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