Swiss Macro and History
Stefan GerlachStefan Gerlach writes about monetary policy as it is actually practiced. Based in Zurich, he is Chief Economist at EFG Bank and a former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Twice weekly |
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| Issues | 161 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 6 days ago |
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Anchored Inflation Expectations Are No Reason for the ECB to Hesitate
Inflation expectations in the euro area look reassuringly well anchored. The ECB should not take much comfort from that. Anchored expectations may simply reflect public trust that the ECB will act if needed, and that trust can erode quickly...
The ECB in July: Hike or Stop
It is hard to make sense of market expectations of ECB policy.
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As the chart below shows, markets are pricing in a gradual increase i...
The ECB's June Bet
Source: https://ecb-watch.eu, data as of 29.5.2026
If you are interested in upcoming central bank decisions, paying careful attention to policymakers’ interviews is useful. In recent days, several members of the ECB Governing Council have...
Bond holders are right to worry about ECB independence
Isabel Schnabel’s Goodhart Lecture of May 7, 2026 is the most candid statement about the risks to central bank independence from any ECB Executive Board member in years. She argues, convincingly, that the ECB’s formal independence is except...
Will the SNB Raise Rates in June?
With inflation rising and tensions in the Gulf continuing, some market commentators are reassessing the widely held view that the SNB will leave interest rates unchanged until at least the end of the year. Will it?
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Authors
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Stefan Gerlach analyses monetary policy with an insider’s view of institutional behaviour — how central banks think, communicate and decide. He is Chief Economist at EFG Bank in Zurich and formerly Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland.
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