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Latest Issues

The Signal I Trust More Than the S&P 500

Last week, I wrote that credit was the line I cared about and trusted most.

Not because equities do not matter, but because markets can be noisy. A weak sector, a difficult earnings report or a sudden political headline can make the index...

a month ago
158
9

The Number Quietly Moving Almost Everything You Own

One Note derived from my latest Macro Lens generated much more interest than I expected:

Real yields matter. They climbed alongside nominal Treasury yields last week. That raises the hurdle rate for long-duration growth valuations.

I mu...

a month ago
56
3

If Credit Breaks, I Change My Mind. Until Then, I’m Doing This

A few subscribers asked the obvious question after the last Macro Series piece:

Interesting. But what do we actually do with it?

Fair question.

My answer is simpler than the macro story itself.

I would not be making a big bearish bet on...

a month ago
36
2

Macro Lens #1: The Market Didn’t Break. It Changed Character.

Introducing the Macro Lens Series. Markets are constantly telling a story, but price action alone rarely tells us why that story is changing. This series looks beneath the headline moves to connect equities, rates, commodities, credit, econ...

a month ago
18
1

Strategy #1.1: A Subscriber Asked Me to Test This SPY Timing Rule

asked:

“Could you test a simple SPY 20-day trend strategy?

Hold SPY when the daily close is above its 20-day moving average; move to cash when it closes below. Execute on the next trading day, include realistic transaction costs...

a month ago
21

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  • Systematic Strategies \ud83d\udd2c

    I Help Retail Investors & Traders Avoid Costly Mistakes With Simple, Rules-Based Strategies | Weekly Stock Research & Systematic Trading Tutorials | Educational, Not Financial Advice | Subscribe for Evidence-Based Insights

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