N. Baratte - TechStock01
Nicolas Baratte - TechStock01I'm Nicolas Baratte, Tech equity analyst for 25 years, focusing on Tech, Semi, Hyperscale, Asia. Company & Industry analysis. I’ve worked on the sell-side (JPM, CLSA) and buy-side (Tiger, Prudential). Now on Substack!
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily |
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| Issues | 235 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 5 days ago |
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techstock01.substack.comLatest Issues
TSMC: raising 2026 guidance, raising Capex, “all the way to probably 2029, 2030, the demand is very strong”
2026 revenue growth now expected slightly above 40% in US$ (from above 30% previously).
2026 revenue growth now expected slightly above 40% in US$ (from above 30% previously). 1-3Q26 revenue growth YoY is 40% in NT$, 38% in US$ (guidance i...
ASML: the clearest signal of increasing AI semiconductor demand
In 4Q25, ASML guidance for 2026 revenues was €36.5bn.
In 4Q25, ASML guidance for 2026 revenues was €36.5bn. In 1Q26, revised up to 38bn. In 2Q26 (today) revised up to 44bn. ASML gross margins estimates also up from 52% to 56%.
AI is a fake, AI is a bubble, again? Stocks aren’t expensive. Hyperscalers’ committed future revenue (RPO) tells a different story
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We’re going thru another iteration of the “AI peak” theory, mostly driven by Hyperscalers’ declining Free Cash Flow and Cash positions. Coinciding with an “AI bubble” narrative, following the April-May stock rally.
- Stocks aren’t expe...
Micron MU 3Q26 (May 26) beat by 21%, Guidance beat by 20%, Consensus ~20% too low
Stock trading at 7x
Big ~20% beats. Consensus is ~20% too low for FY26 and FY27. The stock is trading at 7.1x FY27 EPS.
Semi monthly revenue, Korea (memory), TSMC and Mediatek
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Korea semi export up 173% YoY, that’s Memory of course. As the mix moves towards more HBM and LPDDR, prices should keep going up.
- TSMC steady 30% revenue growth YoY. Growth could accelerate in 2H26 on rapidly growing 2nm revenues (it...
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Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Technology sector, working on the sell-side (JPMorgan, CLSA) and buy-side (a Tiger fund, Prudential). Nicolas now publishes mostly on the global Semi supply chain.
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