Data-driven MLB analysis for fans who want to understand what’s really happening inside the box score. Advanced stats, proprietary models, and baseball stories. Numbers not feelings.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily |
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| Issues | 338 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 5 days ago |
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thebaseballnerd.substack.comLatest Issues
The MLB Playoffs Are here. Here’s What the Numbers Say to Watch
Six months and 162 games built the field. Now eight teams get three games to keep playing.
The 2026 Wild Card Series starts Tuesday with Phillies-Braves, White Sox-Astros, Red Sox-Yankees and Cubs-Padres. Every series has a completely dif...
The Objectively Worst Division Winner in History
Somewhere tonight, in Minneapolis or in Sacramento, a team with potentially a losing record is going to get handed a division title and a trip to October. In a full season, it has never happened. The two teams fighting over the ignominious...
103 Wins. One 21-Year-Old Starter. No Playoffs.
Dusty Baker, always mindful of what a rookie has to put up with in an MLB clubhouse, treated a rookie pitcher to dinner the night before the biggest start of the season. Tim Kurkjian later wrote that Dusty’s penchant for rookies led some of...
Breaking Bad? Something’s Gotta Give? Big Jake?
For Hollywood titles, the AL West is horror, tear-jerker, western and comedy. I suppose the drama could only be contrived by a division that no one wants to win. Apparently.
The American League West is dead.
Did Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Earn His $500 Million Contract Before He Signed It?
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 27 years old, signed through the 2039 season, and has hit one home run at Rogers Centre this year. This week he told an interviewer that his $500 million contract was based on what he did, not what he is going to do...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
I love the game of baseball and the stories it gives us. I'm different in that I don't get caught up in all the hot takes and gut feelings. Instead, I translate numbers to words to tell the real story.
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