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The Chokepoint

William David

Markets price narratives. Supply chains price physics. Structural research on the physical constraints behind economic and strategic power.

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PricingOnly free issuesPublishesDaily
Issues52Founded6 months agoLast Issue3 days ago
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Latest Issues

Someone Has to Agree to Lose Money

For a long time, one question about rebuilding supply chains outside China bothered me more than the rest. Building a plant is hard, but it’s a familiar kind of hard: money, permits, engineers, time. The harder question was who would buy wh...

3 days ago
4

The Power Clock: Where I’m Looking

Update, October 28: The first check came in on the side of a firmer bridge. GE Vernova’s firm gas backlog rose to 64 gigawatts and passed slot reservations, which fell to 58, and it raised its year-end target to at least 130 gigawatts. The...

8 days ago
6
2

Japan Is Running Out of Yttrium. Beijing Said Why.

The Week in Minerals · October 24, 2026

Correction, October 31, 2026: This edition’s headline stated a Japanese yttrium shortage as fact. Japan’s government said on October 22 that there is no fact of yttrium running out in Japan, and Indu...

9 days ago
5

The Power Clock, Part 3: Nuclear Cleared the Paperwork. Now It Waits on Everything Else

Correction, October 21, 2026: An earlier version said an NRC fuel license amendment for Crane was approved in the second quarter. The amendment was issued July 1 and lets Crane receive and store new fuel; the NRC’s approval of the restart i...

14 days ago
4

China Just Put a Price on Europe’s Rare Earth Channel

The Week in Minerals · October 17, 2026

Beijing’s green channel comes with a bill

The licenses keep moving for Europe. China has now said what it wants in return.

At its regular press conference on Thursday, China’s Commerce Ministry...

16 days ago
4

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  • William David

    Most investment theses die on a physical constraint nobody priced - a qualification queue, a separation step, a turbine slot sold years out. I find them before markets do.

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