The Counterfactual by Clive Bates
Clive Bates, David Sweanor, Stefanie Miller, Sally Satel, Brad RoduTobacco and nicotine science, policy, and politics
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 19 | Founded | 4 years ago | Last Issue | 4 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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Stakeholders without a stake
In the UK, we are currently enduring the consultation on a package of anti-vaping, anti-harm-reduction measures. These accompany the pointless and overhyped smoke-free generation measure, the fool’s gold at the heart of the new Tobacco and...
Killing Europeans by banning nicotine pouches
The Brussels-based Smoke Free Partnership (SFP) has come out against the legalisation of nicotine pouches in Germany. It says its members, European health organisations, back the German Medical Association’s call for the German government t...
NHS goes "merchant of doubt" on vaping as an alternative to smoking
I noticed a small but significant change to the NHS website’s advice on vaping as an alternative to smoking: Using e-cigarettes to stop smoking
From April 2019 up to 3rd July 2026
Also known as vapes or e-cigs, they’re far less harmful...
UK government intensifies anti-vaping, pro-smoking agenda
The government has issued a crowd-pleasing press release on new anti-vaping measures, which it describes as a “crackdown”. I am going through it, putting the government’s text in grey boxes below, but first a summary.
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The worst idea in the history of tobacco control
Introduction
On 10 June 2026, the Republic of Palau, a Pacific Island nation, notified the United Nations Secretary-General under Article 2 of the 1971 UN Convention on Psychotropic Substances (“the Convention”). This initiates a critic...
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| Subscribers | Engagement | 73 | Monthly Web Visits | ||
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| Accepts Sponsors | Estimated Cost per Ad | ||||
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
I am a consultant in sustainability and public health with a particular interest in rational, humane, and pragmatic policy that works.
First lawyer in the world to work full-time on policy measures to reduce cigarette smoking. I have achieved many global tobacco control precedents, and see nicotine risk reduction as one of the greatest public health opportunities in history.
Stefanie Miller is an independent consultant with decades of experience at the intersection of politics, policy, capital markets, and the media.
Psychiatrist, Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute and Lecturer, Yale University School of Medicine
Brad Rodu is a Professor of Medicine at the University of Louisville, holds an endowed chair in tobacco harm reduction research, and is a member of the James Graham Brown Cancer Center at UofL.
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