The Fourth Turning Point
Independent macro, geopolitical, and electoral analysis with disclosed positions and a public track record.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 147 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 10 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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thefourthturningpoint.substack.comLatest Issues
Flávio First. Lula Close. Brazil Moves Right.
Flávio Bolsonaro won Brazil’s first round with 47.03%. Lula finished second with 45.16%.
Between them sit 2,224,965 votes.
Flávio fell short of 50%, so the presidency is still undecided.
They meet again on October 25.
Together they took...
Brazil: Everything Comes Down to Today
The Fourth Turning Point · October 4, 2026
Lula narrowly finishes first today.
I think.
Neither candidate reaches 50%.
Probably. I put that at 98 percent.
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro will advance.
That is the outcome I’m most con...
Where the Senate Map Stands
It started with counting.
I don’t know why. It was late. I had exactly 501 tabs open on my phone, and counting felt just a little bit more productive than sleeping.
Texas 15. Michigan 13. Ohio 11. Iowa 11. New Hampshire 10. Georgia 10. No...
Seven States. Five Wins. One Senate.
Part II of “The Map Is Moving: My Complete 2026 Senate Forecast.”
Here’s Part 1:
I’m still a registered Republican.
Somehow. One day I’ll make a post about that. It’s become an increasingly complicated sentence to write.
I want...
The Map Is Moving: My Complete 2026 Senate Forecast
I Took a Break and Built a Senate Forecast
I said I was taking a break.
Now it’s time to show everyone what I did instead.
Apparently this is what I call a break.
I guess my version of rest is refreshing Alaska’s returns at one in th...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Memory. Markets. Meaning. Independent analysis of power and political cycles through the lens of history. Contributor, The Fulcrum. Public forecasting record. No affiliations. No filler.
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