To the liberals who thought Trump could cancel the midterms, and the MAGA crowd who apparently hoped he would: congratulations, the Constitution still exists.

A...

4 days ago

source

Red. Blue. One Damn Country.

After more than 250 Senate simulations, 20-plus generic ballot versions, and over 300 hours of research, I finally put the numbers down.

Just for a few minutes.

Every election season seems to compress a big, beautiful country into two col...

5 days ago

source

Flávio First. Lula Close. Brazil Moves Right.

Flávio Bolsonaro won Brazil’s first round with 47.03%. Lula finished second with 45.16%.

Between them sit 2,224,965 votes.

Flávio fell short of 50%, so the presidency is still undecided.

They meet again on October 25.

Together they took...

a month ago

source

Brazil: Everything Comes Down to Today

The Fourth Turning Point · October 4, 2026

Lula narrowly finishes first today.

I think.

Neither candidate reaches 50%.

Probably. I put that at 98 percent.

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro will advance.

That is the outcome I’m most con...

a month ago

source

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The Fourth Turning Point

Memory. Markets. Meaning. Independent analysis of power and political cycles through the lens of history. Contributor, The Fulcrum. Public forecasting record. No affiliations. No filler.

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