The Long View
Every investment thesis has a hidden assumption most investors never name. The Stock Story Firewall finds it. The Long View tests it against the filing every week.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Daily |
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| Issues | 232 | Founded | 8 months ago | Last Issue | 5 days ago |
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I Went Looking for Two Misses at IBM and the Filing Only Had One.
Two of IBM’s three segments came in short on the same July morning, and the market read it as one company breaking in two places at once. I have spent this morning in the company’s own filing, and the software shortfall and the mainframe sh...
IBM Fell 25 Percent in One Day. I Am Not Adding Until I Know Why.
On 14 July 2026, IBM told investors its mainframe business had missed, and the stock lost a quarter of its value in a single day. I have owned IBM since the bottom of the COVID crash in March 2020. Two months later, on 16 September 2026, an...
Dillard's Meets All Five Criteria. Macy's Meets One. Berkshire Bought Macy's.
Five days, and a result that points both ways
Berkshire Hathaway has published what it looks for in a business and has done since around 1983. Five things. Run that list against the two department stores this week has been taking apart...
Dillard's Handed Back 83 Percent of the Cash It Generated Last Year. Macy's Handed Back 31.
What each of them did with it
Yesterday I showed you that Dillard’s keeps 4.6 cents from every sales dollar and Macy’s keeps about two. That is only half a question. The other half is what happens to the money after it is earned, and he...
Both Stores Sell the Same Designer Labels at the Same Markup. Only One of Them Keeps the Money.
What each of them keeps
Two department stores closed a quarter on the same day, 1 August 2026. They sell the same national brands to the same customer out of the same malls. Out of every dollar that went through the till, Dillard’s kept...
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We built the Hidden Assumption Framework and the tools that run it. The Stock Story Firewall for public companies, the Pitch Deck Firewall for startups. Every investment is a bet on one assumption holding. Most investors never find out which
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