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The Overhang

rustie

Aotearoa/NZ politics posting with an analytical bent.

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Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesWeekly
Issues18Founded4 years agoLast Issue8 days ago
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Latest Issues

October polling and forecasts

tl;dr

  • Given the impact of the possible overhang, National and the current coalition have a 67% chance of governing without needing Opportunity.

  • Labour and the opposition have almost no possibility (4%) of governing without Op...

8 days ago

The Overhang 2.10 - Side splitting

Happy first day of voting. National are almost certainly getting an overhang (you can stop reading now). If you’re just here for the picks and not the history class, then just scroll to the end.1

tl;dr

  • Because we lack abundant and...
11 days ago

The Overhang 2.9 - Local business

Part 2 of a series on how we forecast NZ election results, looking at how the party vote in individual electorates behaves.

tl;dr

  • The party vote in each electorate can be reasonably predicted based on the nationwide1 party vote....
23 days ago

The Overhang 2.8 - Poll Dancing

Part 1 of a series on how we forecast NZ election results. Starting with the core of the engine: political polling.

tl;dr

  • Opinion polling in New Zealand elections has historically been reliable and in the absence of other informat...
a month ago

September polling and forecasts

The 54th New Zealand Parliament sat for the final time yesterday, and now the real campaign begins. This update looks at the current state of the party vote ahead of things getting real.

The tl;dr

  • National has pulled very slightly...
a month ago

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