The Overhang
rustieAotearoa/NZ politics posting with an analytical bent.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Monthly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 15 | Founded | 4 years ago | Last Issue | 8 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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theoverhangaonz.substack.comLatest Issues
The Overhang 2.8 - Poll Dancing
Part 1 of a series on how we forecast NZ election results. Starting with the core of the engine: political polling.
tl;dr
- Opinion polling in New Zealand elections has historically been reliable and in the absence of other informat...
September polling and forecasts
The 54th New Zealand Parliament sat for the final time yesterday, and now the real campaign begins. This update looks at the current state of the party vote ahead of things getting real.
The tl;dr
- National has pulled very slightly...
The Overhang 2.7: Putsch comes to shove
This piece started life as a general survey of the state of the race as the 2026 campaign officially began. Over the weekend, events decided to rudely transpire. Instead we’re looking into coups present and past.
The tl;dr
- Nationa...
The Overhang 2.6: Boundary Issues, Part 6
Note that this piece is fairly graphics heavy, so may be best viewed in browser or via the app rather than in your inbox.
Hi.
A much-delayed effortpost, but a comprehensive and hopefully useful one.
It covers:
- the overall outcomes o...
Guest post: Bonus Christchurch edition
Hello again.
Well I said I didn’t have time to look over council races outside Wellington and I don’t. However, a reader provided thoughts in the DMs and from afar (my knowledge of Christchurch is patchy at best (it’s the one north of Dune...
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