The Rogue Quant
Get backtested trading strategies with code and edge breakdowns, plus AI prompts to generate, validate, and refine profitable trading ideas.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 84 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 10 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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roguequant.substack.comLatest Issues
A Forex Strategy With a 4.30 Out-of-Sample Profit Factor
The backtest looked solid. The holdout looked even better. Then Audit-29 found the weakness neither equity curve could show.
Real Madrid just broke its own transfer record.
A Double Record in Sugar, Retail Fighting Hedge Funds in the Nasdaq, and the Sudden Return of the Gold Hedgers
The CFTC published Tuesday’s positioning yesterday afternoon as you know.
I ran it against three years of history for all 49 markets I track.
Four headlines made the cut this week…
Let’s dive in…
One bad backtest costs more than a year...
Six Signals This Year. Three Days Each. $15,190. (CoT Update + Full Trading Strategy)
Long-only crude, 203 trades, profit factor 2.26 and an entry condition that has nothing to do with oil's own positioning…
Two weeks ago I wrote that oil’s biggest bulls had stopped adding to their book, with crude near $90.
Oil Ran 27% in a Month. Then Its Biggest Bulls Stopped Adding. (CoT Update)
Last week’s report left two loose ends:
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Crude, where I admitted the positioning extreme was real and I’d been too slow to trust it.
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And silver, the most bullish positioning on the board (falling anyway)
You can read it here...
No Single Player Wins a World Cup. No Single Rule Wins This Backtest.
A bond short built from three conditions, none survives alone. Together: one losing year in seventeen, profit factor 1.91 net of costs.
First of all: to all the Spanish subscribers: congratulations world champions. Well deserved.
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
I research, backtest, and build trading systems with an edge.
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