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The Rogue Quant

Hundreds of paid subscribers

Get backtested trading strategies with code and edge breakdowns, plus AI prompts to generate, validate, and refine profitable trading ideas.

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Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesWeekly
Issues79Foundeda year agoLast Issue4 days ago
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Latest Issues

Silver Has the Most Bullish Positioning on the Board. It's Down 21%. (CoT Update)

Last week I wrote that the physical players selling the cocoa rally meant the easy part of that move was over.

You can read it here:

Cocoa fell 8.8% this week.

I also wrote that crude’s positioning extreme looked real, but I wanted one...

4 days ago
1

Buy the Dip, but Not Every Dip: One Filter Cut the Drawdown by 88%

A dead-simple EUR/JPY dip-buy strategy quadrupled its net profit with one filter (full code included)

I spent part of this World Cup in the United States, and watching keepers face penalties reminded me of a 2007 study.

9 days ago
14
Paid

The Market Doesn't Take Vacations (CoT Update)

“Markets are never wrong; opinions often are.” — Jesse Livermore

I took eighteen days off. The market took none.

And when I pulled the positioning tape, I found two markets running in opposite directions inside the same three weeks.

Nu...

11 days ago
8

A CoT strategy on Crude Oil

Full code inside

Quick one this week — I’m traveling to FIFA World Cup with the kids, so I’m keeping this short.

a month ago
8
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Everything Sold At Once (CoT Update 06-12)

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” — John Maynard Keynes

Quick note on timing, for newer readers: the CFTC takes its snapshot of trader positions every Tuesday and publishes it on Friday. So the positionin...

a month ago
16

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