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The Sober Analyst

AI Infrastructure Risk Analysis

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Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesDaily
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Latest Issues

The AI Stack’s Seven Possible Points of Failure (So Far)

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The AI boom is built on a stack of dependencies. TSMC makes the chips. NVIDIA designs them. Hyperscalers build the data centers. Model builders consume the compute. Each layer depends on the o...

8 months ago
1

Oracle and Open AI: The Circle Continues

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The Setup

Oracle is borrowing tens of billions of dollars to build data centers for OpenAI, with total debt expected to exceed $100 billion by 2028. OpenAI must raise enough money...

8 months ago

Microsoft: Scaling Faster Than the Grid

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Each week, The Sober Analyst tracks the companies building the AI stack. These notes cut through claims and focus on what decides the quarter: capacity, supply, and performance. Every...

8 months ago

OpenAI at the Crossroads

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Current Reality

OpenAI stands today as both one of the fastest-growing technology companies in history and one of the most exposed. By mid-2025, the company reported annualized revenues of about 12 billion dollars, but it was als...

8 months ago

NVIDIA

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NVIDIA is the undisputed leader of the AI boom. Its GPUs have become the standard engines for training and deploying large models. In Q2 FY2026, sales reached $46.7 billion and gross m...

8 months ago
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  • The Sober Analyst

    In depth risk analysis of the AI infrastructure race.

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