The Update
Stefan SchubertNews that shifts your beliefs
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 63 | Founded | 9 months ago | Last Issue | 5 days ago |
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The limits to progress in psychology
How much has psychology left to discover? When I ran a poll on this question a few years ago, most respondents were optimistic about how much knowledge future research could yield:
But I’m more pessimistic, at least when it comes to the pa...
The roots of cynicism
Many people are reflexively cynical about higher motives such as moral convictions, political ideals, and informal codes of honour and loyalty. They insist that philanthropy is just tax planning or that CEOs warning about an AI catastrophe...
The problem with disjunctive existential risk
Suppose that Alice and Bob have different beliefs about existential risk over the next 50 years. While Alice thinks it comes overwhelmingly from a single threat, Bob views it as a disjunction of four independent threats.
Alice:
- Threat...
The response prior
We can think of the chance that a particular threat ends in an existential disaster as determined by two factors:
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The difficulty of the problem (what it would take to prevent disaster)
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The effectiveness of our response (whether we...
Why we’re epistemically flexible but stubbornly self-regarding
Dan Williams recently published a great essay on two types of pessimism about humanity: moral or motivational pessimism (especially about overcoming selfishness) and epistemic pessimism – pessimism about our ability to acquire and deploy kn...
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