The Update
Stefan SchubertNews that shifts your beliefs
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 61 | Founded | 8 months ago | Last Issue | 9 days ago |
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The problem with disjunctive existential risk
Suppose that Alice and Bob have different beliefs about existential risk over the next 50 years. While Alice thinks it comes overwhelmingly from a single threat, Bob views it as a disjunction of four independent threats.
Alice:
- Threat...
The response prior
We can think of the chance that a particular threat ends in an existential disaster as determined by two factors:
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The difficulty of the problem (what it would take to prevent disaster)
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The effectiveness of our response (whether we...
Why we’re epistemically flexible but stubbornly self-regarding
Dan Williams recently published a great essay on two types of pessimism about humanity: moral or motivational pessimism (especially about overcoming selfishness) and epistemic pessimism – pessimism about our ability to acquire and deploy kn...
Talk: The case for epistemic discipline
I gave a talk at EAGx Nordics about epistemic discipline, building on my argument-checking of opinion pieces and live debates. The video is now up:
Many participants in public discourse don’t even try to give proper arguments. For instance...
The Rationality Gap
Why did so many expect the Millennium Bug to cause a disaster?
Why was the peak oil theory so widely believed?
Why is rent control so popular?
Because we suffer from the sleepwalking illusion: we keep missing how people adapt to changing...
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