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theoldeconomy.substack.comLatest Issues
Monthly Summary: May 2026
This is your list of all articles and reports published in May. There is something for everyone:
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The Next Event-Driven Macro Bet: Colombia; Stacking Edges and Grupo AVAL
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Ruminations on Checklists, Lessons, and Shipping; The Shipp...
Another LatAm Shopping List: In Search of Cheap Probability + Argentina is Back on the List
Week 23 Plans
As the name of today’s email suggests, next week I will shop for cheap probability in Latin America. Given the rising volatility across all markets, finding undervalued options is getting quite difficult. Nevertheless, bargai...
Offshore Support Vessels in the Malaysian Upstream: Purchase 24% FCF yield at 0.56x Price to TBV
Offshore Capital Cycle Play
The capital cycle reigns supreme. Capital starvation leads to a deficit and rising prices. Higher prices then lead to increased capex, which leads to a supply glut and depressed prices. Drink, rinse, repeat.
Ecopetrol’s Long Duration Notes: Buying Political Change at a Discount
The May 31 Colombian presidential election is eight days away. The bond market is pricing the Petro regime in perpetuity. It is wrong. Here is the trade.
As you know, I am a die-hard macro enthusiast. My favorite macro bet for the coming f...
Getting Ready for Colombian Elections
Week 21 Plans
Next week will add exposure to Colombia. Again, I will use Grupo AVAL, but the trade will have a twist.
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Independent investor covering shipping, energy, mining, and Latin American markets. TheOldEconomy portfolio: 355% return since Jan 2023. Institutional-grade research for sophisticated investors.
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