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Thierry from arvy

Great businesses the market also agrees with. I analyze quality compounders, sectors, market cycles & investor psychology through both fundamentals AND technicals. Portfolio + screening of 800+ stocks & 300+ ETFs. CIO @ arvy · NZZ columnist

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Latest Issues

Aerospace - The Most Beautiful Industry in the World

Part 1 of 3 · A sector deep dive. Why aerospace — and the whole business of human movement, hotels included — may be the finest set of oligopolies in all of markets: the moats, the tailwinds, the honest risks, a record-breaking billionaire,...

2 days ago
3

Apple vs Micron: One Bleeds, One Wins

arvy’s teaser

For the first time in living memory, Apple raised prices on almost everything it sells — with no new features to justify it. The stock had its worst day in over a year. But the real story isn’t Apple. It’s the boring, br...

4 days ago
6
1

When Should You Sell Semiconductors?

Part 3 of 3 · The finale.

Stage analysis says topping. But the 1998 analog and Livermore's hand-drawn cycle both say we're at point 6 — shakeout next, melt-up after. So we stop predicting and use the twelve rules that work either way.

4 days ago
6
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The Chart That Keeps Me Awake at Night (Margin Debt)

A free companion to tomorrow’s finale, «When Should You Sell Semiconductors?» No paywall — because this is the piece I most want every reader to understand before the next drawdown, not after it.


Tomorrow we publish the last part of...

5 days ago
10

The Semi-Story Is Weaker Than It Looks

Part 2 of 3 · The chart says late-stage. Now we turn it face-down — and our own screening reveals that «semiconductors» is not one trade, but three, stacked by quality.

«It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what yo...

7 days ago
7
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  • Thierry from arvy

    Great businesses the market also agrees with. I analyze quality compounders, sectors, market cycles & investor psychology through both fundamentals AND technicals. Portfolio + screening of 800+ stocks & 300+ ETFs. CIO @ arvy · NZZ columnist

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