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A Letter from Paul

Paul Podolsky
Hundreds of paid subscribers

Practical, jargon-free description of what is going on in international affairs and financial markets from the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of a global macro hedge fund, Kate Capital. And the price is right...free.

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Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesWeekly
Issues407Founded5 years agoLast Issue13 days ago
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Latest Issues

Pessimism Priced

Not investment advice.


A brief note from the road, tonight in London.

In meetings with investors, the sense of trepidation—rather than opportunity—regarding AI is palpable.

It is true that if AI is a mirage, the economy will indee...

13 days ago
22

Tightening Changes Things

Not investment advice.


This month, the ECB and the Bank of Japan are expected to raise interest rates, but the Fed isn’t. However, the odds (as reflected in bond pricing) of the Fed hiking this year have gone from 0% before the war...

20 days ago
23

Learning from War

Not investment advice.


The Iran war is roughly 75% over. There is approximately a 25% probability of escalation and another significant spike in energy prices.

Months in, a few key observations stand out:

1. It is wiser to trade...

a month ago
22

Productivity Shifts > Regional Wars

Not investment advice.


During the railroad boom, there were regional wars, like the Anglo-Zulu War, that today almost no one remembers. We remember the railroads, however. A bridge in my town—a massive wrought-iron structure—was bui...

a month ago
25
3

Tightening

Not investment advice.


We are going to get a tightening in monetary policy, which is bad for assets. Inflation, as shown below, is around 4% in the US and 3% in Europe and is going higher due to the war in Iran and the resulting hig...

a month ago
22
2

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