Demographic Data Analysis
Ulf LorréMortality, Life Expectancy, Fertility and more
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 24 | Subscribers | Read | ulflorr.substack.com |
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About mortality displacement
In the time series of deaths, mortality rates (MR), life expectancy (LE), etc., there are outliers, called “shocks”, in some years. In between, the years follow a regular, seasonal pattern. A plausible argument in this context is that if ma...
Longevity trends in German life expectancy: Where do we stand with 2023?
It is one thing to determine life expectancy at birth (LE) or mortality rates from available death counts and population data - but quite another to judge them fairly, if they are drifting towards unusual directions.
German death figures 2023 - almost back to normal, still a disturbing overall picture
Destatis yesterday published deaths figures for the whole of 2023. In order to obtain a reliable assessment of the situation, I calculated the weekly time series of life expectancy, applied an ARIMA forecast from the reference epoch 2016-20...
Quantification of Destatis' methodological errors in 2020-2022
#### Destatis, the official German statistics authority, has again been criticized. The core accusation is that the authority has been misleading the public about mortality trends. The existence of methodological errors is beyond doubt, but...
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