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Value Added

Duncan Weldon

Economics, finance, political economy.

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Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesTwice weekly
Issues86Founded5 years agoLast Issue3 years ago
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Latest Issues

A miss, a hike and some caveats

The inflation miss should not be overplayed - rates are almost certainly near their peak.

The golden rule of macroeconomic analysis is never to get too excited about any single datapoint, no matter how important it can seem or however mark...

3 years ago
3
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Five Budget Takeaways

What caught my attention

The bar was set rather low yesterday. Just the very process of delivering an actual annual budget is a hurdle that the last two chancellors failed to clear and expectations were pretty much on the floor.

3 years ago
1
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The Politics of Growth

Eleven or so weeks ago, back when Liz Truss was Prime Minister rather than a tricky pub quiz question answer in the 2040s, she declared to her conference that her three priorities were “growth, growth and growth”.

Around nine weeks before...

3 years ago
17
1

How bad will it be?

The OBR and the BOE foresee very different recessions. The key difference is household savings.

Economic forecasters have caught up with the message that consumers have been signalling since Spring and now broadly agree that the UK is in r...

3 years ago
1
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Five Autumn Statement Takeaways

The Big Squeeze

The OBR forecasts for income growth are simply horrific. There’s no other way to describe it. The biggest annual drop since the modern records began in 1956… followed by another fall. That would be into the third back-to-ba...

4 years ago
20

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  • Duncan Weldon

    Writing about economics, finance and political economy. With a dash of economic history.

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