叙事雷达 | Narrative Radar 最近的一个小尝试，也是训练模型过程中的一部分：把每天读新闻时捕捉到的“叙事线索”与验证路径，用工作流的方式记录下来；不仅仅是"看新闻"——更在追踪“叙事”（narratives）的诞生、发酵和演变。内容不求面面俱到，重在把“感觉到的风向”与“可追踪的证据”放在一起，方便后续复盘与迭代。 这个newsletter是我追踪叙事的工作日志，也是训练模型识别市场故事脉络的一部分。我想把这个过程分享出来，希望对大家也有启发。
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 108 | Founded | 4 years ago | Last Issue | 4 days ago |
| Active | Language |  ZH-CN | |||
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【完整版】关于资本外流和台湾：两个“人人知道但无人定价”的风险
01
上周在《墙裂坛》录了一期单口播客（播客可以在小宇宙、Spotify、Apple Podcasts 等各大平台收听，文字版在“墙裂坛”公众号），主要是解读Michael Cembalest 的研报《Semiquincententacles》。这篇研报主要是想论证：今年美国独立250周年，美国货币和资本市场的触手依然像一个只半鹰半章鱼的怪物，缠绕着全世界。
有两个问题在播客里只点了一下，没敢展开：
发现叙事 is a reader-supported publ...
新旧动能转换，转换到什么时候是个头？
如果新旧动能转换的结果是大家全都一窝蜂地出去找钱赚、找生计，那这个图景可是太奇怪了。到底是转换，还是挤出？
现在大家都在谈论 K 型经济。我理解的中国式 K 型是这样一幅画面：一边，高科技领域不缺钱、股票暴涨，K 那条向上的胳膊伸得越来越快、越来越高；另一边，传统的、过气的、曾经的支柱，那剩下的大多数，K 下面那条腿越来越往下出溜、越来越塌。
AI 的集权性会把 K 型经济拉得更长
一些让我有点不太舒服的现象。不知道后续会演变成什么。先记录下来。
本期newsletter碎碎念一些我过去两三天里，受到冲击的想法。之前和大家说过，最近自己在折腾琢磨这也在 AI 宏观分析领域创个业。有了这个想法，不可避免地要聊一些投资人，聊完之后信心比较受打击。
泡沫英雄主义
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01
说实话，我很久没关心 Crypto 和比特币了。也许是对它们的兴趣以及包裹周围的叙事，也和比特币价格一样，一路往下走。毕竟下坡路最好走了。
其实这也不是我一个人的问题，所有人都喜新厌旧。这个行业的注意力已经迁徙好几...
新的时代精神出现了：嘛事儿没有
不知道大家最近有没有刷到一个梗图，长这样：
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一个表情木讷的大叔指着一块牌子，上面就一句话。这就是 “Nothing ever happens” meme。翻译成中文，用天津话读很合适：“嘛事（si）儿没有”。
每次有什么...
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最近的一个小尝试，也是训练模型过程中的一部分：把每天读新闻时捕捉到的“叙事线索”与验证路径，用工作流的方式记录下来；不仅仅是"看新闻"——更在追踪**叙事**（narratives）的诞生、发酵和演变。内容不求面面俱到，重在把“感觉到的风向”与“可追踪的证据”放在一起，方便后续复盘与迭代。 这个newsletter是我追踪叙事的工作日志，也是训练模型识别市场故事脉络的一部分。我想把这个过程分享出来，希望对大家也有启发。
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