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xGenius

Data-driven betting and trading education — built on xG modelling, AI, and a real sustainable edge.

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Issues159Foundeda year agoLast Issue6 days ago
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Latest Issues

Why headed goals at the 2026 World Cup look under-priced

Did you know that headed goals have accounted for around 1 in 5 goals at modern World Cup tournaments? Or that the 2026 World Cup is projected to deliver between 55 and 65 headed goals across the 104 matches? Or that the Sporting Index spre...

6 days ago

The 15-Minute Profit Window

Did you know that nearly 1 in 4 World Cup goals are scored between the 76th and 90th minute? Or that this same pattern has held across every World Cup since 1998? Or that the bookmaker’s in-play model often prices regulation-time World Cup...

7 days ago

Don't make this mistake if betting on the Player of the Tournament

Did you know that no defender has ever won the World Cup Golden Ball since FIFA introduced the award in 1982? Or that recent World Cup Golden Boot winners have frequently come from outside the pre-tournament top three favourites? Or that th...

8 days ago

Brazil at risk, Senegal undervalued at World Cup 2026

Did you know Brazil have the lowest Reach Last 16 probability of any World Cup favourite? Or that Senegal’s nine-from-ten form record translates to just 12.7% to reach the Quarter-Finals at the bookmaker? Or that the two numbers reflect ver...

9 days ago

USA's World Cup 2026 group: where the host effect creates value

This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

The four sides in Group D (USA, Australia, Paraguay and Turkey) sit within just five Opta rating points of each other...

10 days ago

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