From the first foreign BoJ Watcher, interpreting policy signals since 1986
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 59 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 3 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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bojwatchtower.substack.comLatest Issues
BoJ likes the new Fed pursuit of optionality
All meetings live, meeting optionality = less speculative risk taking, volatility is market feedback as well, BoJ must internally revise growth higher
All meetings live
Entering the BoJ end game
1.5% rates by fiscal year end fully priced, 2% inflation a ceiling not a target, JPY trend reversal is the hand-off from BoJ rate hikes
A different curve end game
BoJ letting the market do the work
OIS discounts 2 rate hikes to Dec, JGB 3% marks normalisation success
Borrowing from Warsh’s playbook
BoJ Hawkish forward guidance working
Summary of Opinions add to guidance, Japan short term rates & FX intervention risk undermine the carry trade
Hawkish forward guidance
Successful BoJ meeting
More effective hawkish rhetoric, a small bear flattener, complimenting FX intervention
First the successes
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Internationalist, 30+ years in global financial markets, Author of Watchtower Series on Substack, commenting on markets & geopolitical risk.
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