Capital & Cycles
Sandro VergueiroIndependent views on global markets — from macro cycles to micro dislocations. Connecting geopolitics, data and narratives to what really moves prices. By Sandro Vergueiro.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 22 | Founded | 3 months ago | Last Issue | 9 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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sandrovergueiro.substack.comLatest Issues
The Capital & Cycles Equities Portfolio — Month Report - May/26
Where We Stand
Two months into the portfolio. We’re +17.5% since inception and in May/26 we went +9.3%. The MSCI World Index returned +12.5% since inception and +5.2% this month, meaning we’ve generated 500 bps of alpha in our first si...
6 Lessons Nassim Taleb Taught Me About Luck
25 years after publication, Fooled by Randomness remains one of the most uncomfortable books ever written about markets.
Its central claim is brutal: most of what we call skill in finance is variance wearing a suit. And the people who resi...
Deep Dive: Banco Inter ($INTR)
The 30-Second Map
Banco Inter (NASDAQ: INTR) is the third-largest digital-native bank in Brazil by client count, 44 million users, 25.8 million of them monthly-active. It’s also one of the very few South American banks that has chosen t...
The Brazil Setup Update: What Changed in 30 Days And Why the Thesis Just Got Even Cheaper
Thirty days ago I published The Brazil Setup, laying out the macro case for a structural rotation into Brazilian equities and the five single-stock ideas I believed best expressed it. The tape since then has done its best to embarrass me an...
The Fed Throne Is Changing Hands
On May 15, 2026, Jerome Powell hands the keys to the Federal Reserve to Kevin Warsh. The ceremony will be polite. The language will be measured. But make no mistake: what just happened to the Fed is anything but ordinary.
For the first tim...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Founder, Pegasus Capital — I write about macro cycles, fixed income and global equities. 15+ years of experience in the market.
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