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For decades, campaigns have been built around averages.
The average Republican.
The average suburban woman.
The average independent voter.
The average Hispanic voter.
The average evangelical.
The average swing...
Today, Texas Republicans are watching what may become one of the defining tests of modern political volatility: Ken Paxton versus John Cornyn.
Most analysis of races like this still focuses on:
polling margins,
spending decisions...
Most campaigns operate as if persuasion is broad. It isn’t.
They assume the battlefield is filled with:
undecided voters,
loosely attached partisans,
and people waiting to hear the right message.
That assumption drives a...
Most campaigns still measure persuasion the same way they did twenty years ago.
Did favorability move?
Did ballot numbers shift?
Did the message test improve?
But a new AI persuasion study suggests campaigns may be measur...
Campaign strategists (GC’s, media consultants, even pollsters) talk about persuasion constantly. My experience is that most don’t understand what causes it. They assume:
more reach = more persuasion “we need more GRPs!”
more conte...
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The writers behind this newsletter.
Christopher S. Wilson: CEO EyesOver|Stratus Intelligence. Conservative data scientist and pollster. Founder of WPA Intelligence. Integrates opinion research, data science, and AI for political analytics. 2021 Pollster of the Year. Fox News analyst.
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